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Severe WX Severe Weather 4/11 - 4/15

I'd be a advocate to see locally higher tornado probabilities next update given how this OFB is setting up. There could potential for several tornadoes across a broad regime supporting several mini supercells across E Central TX to NE TX. Concerns are the mode becoming more messier but otherwise becoming a decent environment.
 
ColdFront said:
I’m just not overly impressed with any of the upcoming set ups. They’re all very conditional, and model variance isn’t making this any simpler. The SPC are playing these set ups very conservative as well. Regarding the previous headliner day, Positive tilted troughs can and do lift and cool caps, but they’re usually way more zonal, and it requires a different geometric configuration than what is currently being modeled. Some of the depictions really remind me of 4/28 of last year. Strung out and not well defined trough and jet.

Now, I’m more talking about things from the synoptic level, rather than reliance on surface boundaries for CI and storm maintenance (warm front will once again be in play this week).

There will be tornados this week, I just think the higher end solutions over a broad swath that had that “look” last week, are capped (ha!) for this one.
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Agree. Not at all a generally impressive look, but some of these threats will have localised hot-spots. This never was the super widespread event people depicted it to be, it had one or two decent spatial days going for it but downtrends happened. That's a good thing imo. The fact that you already have model disagreement to hr 84 makes me a bit ok the edge as this means that we're not gonna see surprises upcoming due to such uncertainty.

I also apologise if I tend to clog these threads sometimes, i am justice really passionate about weather lol
 
WeathermanLeprechaun said:
Agree. Not at all a generally impressive look, but some of these threats will have localised hot-spots. This never was the super widespread event people depicted it to be, it had one or two decent spatial days going for it but downtrends happened. That's a good thing imo. The fact that you already have model disagreement to hr 84 makes me a bit ok the edge as this means that we're not gonna see surprises upcoming due to such uncertainty.

I also apologise if I tend to clog these threads sometimes, i am justice really passionate about weather lol
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Clog it away dude. This is what being passionate about weather is all about. You’re insights are always very informative.
 
Of course, take my prognostications with a grain of salt. I’m a hobbyist, not a professional by any means. I made this post the night before the 3/16 absolute bu$t over North Carolina & Virginia.

ColdFront said:
Re: tomorrow. Maybe I’ll eat crow, nothing more liberating than admitting you’re wrong, but I still think the HRRR/CAMS still aren’t handling the presentation/environment well.

You have a 120+ kt 500 MB isotach nose impinging and then directly punching into the warm sector, and then further overlapping it. At peak heating. That kind of perfect timing is a rare thing in set ups. Some of the models are hinting at a Mesolow, which was infamously present during the 3/28/84 Carolinas outbreak. Not sure I buy that yet.

There is still the question of WAA crapvection and clouds, but synoptically this set up is pretty apparent. If you had a proper EML and a cold front draped further back to the west and not bearing down on the warm sector with a line of storms, this would be a high ceiling event. Regardless of Ifs, for this part of the US, this is a rare synoptic set up.
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Thanks, guys. I just feel like sometimes maybe my constant analysis tends to override these threads.

I feel like NE MN and S TX are gonna surprise a few today. WF is running north quick now for NE MN who is in the mid 40s! Could be a decent tornado threat setting up there if mid levels aren't too hostile to discrete development.
 
Grand Poo Bah said:
CSU is convinced Tuesday is gonna be big. Haven't seen probabilities like these in quite some time.



Also these updraft helicity swaths for tomorrow evening are quite something

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yeah, if something gets on a boundary and it enhances shear and cells actually form it could perform good. that map shows the trough being more on time though, so we'll have to see.
 
jiharris0220 said:
Is anyone else running into the issue of not being able to post photos?
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Yeah, it's messed up again. Imgur let's you upload for free without signing in or downloading an app, then you can copy the link and it automatically embeds when pasted here. Very simple work around.

WeathermanLeprechaun said:
Thanks, guys. I just feel like sometimes maybe my constant analysis tends to override these threads.
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Dude that could not be further from the truth. We look forward to your posts everyday, and I also like your conservative analysis of these set ups. They really cut through the hype. We gotta get you to the states for a chase someday!
 
ColdFront said:
Of course, take my prognostications with a grain of salt. I’m a hobbyist, not a professional by any means. I made this post the night before the 3/16 absolute bu$t over North Carolina & Virginia.
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Tbh when people talk about 3/16 a lot of people ignore how bad the models sh4t the bed that day. All of them said major outbreak until the night before where it would downtrend to literally a complete nothingburger.
 
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