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Severe Weather 3/9 - 3/12

ThatGuy;P said:
from NWS Baltimore/Washington:

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
BETWEEN 2 PM AND 10 PM TODAY, INCLUDING THE GREATER
BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON METROPOLITAN AREAS...

An outbreak of severe storms is expected this afternoon and
evening across the greater Baltimore/Washington region, with
numerous severe thunderstorms expected. There is a significant
threat for damaging and locally destructive hurricane-force
winds, along with the potential for large hail and tornadoes, even
strong tornadoes.

The timing of this outbreak varies with your location. West of the
Blue Ridge Mountains, you can expect the storms to arrive between
12 Noon and 3 PM. East of the Blue Ridge Mountains, timing will
be from 4 PM to 8 PM. The greater Baltimore/Washington
Metropolitan Areas can expect the storms to arrive between 5 PM
and 7 PM.
Click to expand...

That is... very strong wording for a pretty low-end event IMO. My thoughts for the DC area (again copy-pasted from americanwx):

Almost clear in DC, although we still might have some cloud deck coming in, according to vis sat. Already 84/54 at DCA, so it will be nearly impossible for storms to get down to the surface. The HRRR and RRFS are progging ~500 CAPE peak for DC, while the NAM nest and RAP are >1000. Usually, I'd lean towards the RAP, but both it and the NAM are initializing too cold (3 degrees or so), so I'll lean towards the HRRR and RRFF, which show a kind of isolated low-topped supercell event. Maybe some small hail.
 
Grand Poo Bah said:
Dang, you rarely see posts like this first one. Definitely a glimpse into the human impact of these storms. Second post is some pretty decent analysis. Looks like it could have been a manufactured home, but the stubbing of the shrubs out front is pretty impressive.

Click to expand...

A bit of good news that OP shared, they thought their cat died, but miraculously they found their cat alive. I wish them the best. No living thing, let alone a person, should go through this
 
andyhb said:


If this is legitimate and was measured, this would be breaking the state record for hail by a massive amount. The previous record was under 5 inches (this storm has already broken that multiple times).
Click to expand...

This could also be the world record for hail size if it's just over 8 inches.
Come to think of it, if a CIG3/High Risk for hail would exist, it would've been over IL for this storm. I've never seen a storm consistently drop 5+ inch hailstones
 
N0mz said:
That is... very strong wording for a pretty low-end event IMO. My thoughts for the DC area (again copy-pasted from americanwx):

Almost clear in DC, although we still might have some cloud deck coming in, according to vis sat. Already 84/54 at DCA, so it will be nearly impossible for storms to get down to the surface. The HRRR and RRFS are progging ~500 CAPE peak for DC, while the NAM nest and RAP are >1000. Usually, I'd lean towards the RAP, but both it and the NAM are initializing too cold (3 degrees or so), so I'll lean towards the HRRR and RRFF, which show a kind of isolated low-topped supercell event. Maybe some small hail.
Click to expand...
Yeah I was surprised they were that aggressive with the wording. Still questionable imo whether we get any kind of serious prefrontal convection this far east given that we’re still decently capped here for at least a while.
 
Maxis_s said:
A bit of good news that OP shared, they thought their cat died, but miraculously they found their cat alive. I wish them the best. No living thing, let alone a person, should go through this
Click to expand...
Getting the cats into their carriers is the #1 thing on the tornado warning checklist in our house.
 
Central Ohio Wx said:
Discord; apparently a QRT is evaluating based off hardwood tree damage (odd, I know). Nick is a trustworthy source imo.
Click to expand...
Weird. I doubt it gets EF4 though. Just the construction, once again looks like it’ll hold all these tornadoes ratings back. I’ll be surprised if one does get it.
Much of the Midwest has poorer construction quality
 
Central Ohio Wx said:
Discord; apparently a QRT is evaluating based off hardwood tree damage (odd, I know). Nick is a trustworthy source imo.
Click to expand...
Fair enough that it came from @NickKrasz_Wx, I think he's reliable enough by this point to where his comment about the QRT is probably true.

Still, everytime I see the word "Discord" brought up in regards to tornado damage discussion, it throws up a red flag for me. No offense.
 
TH2002 said:
Fair enough that it came from @NickKrasz_Wx, I think he's reliable enough by this point to where his comment about the QRT is probably true.

Still, everytime I see the word "Discord" brought up in regards to tornado damage discussion, it throws up a red flag for me. No offense.
Click to expand...
Him saying it on Discord is no different than him posting it to X.
 
tornado examiner said:
Weird. I doubt it gets EF4 though. Just the construction, once again looks like it’ll hold all these tornadoes ratings back. I’ll be surprised if one does get it.
Much of the Midwest has poorer construction quality
Click to expand...
One DI is very similar to a home that received an EF4 rating in Barnsdall, so it’s really a tossup.
 
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