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Severe Weather 3/9 - 3/12

Potential for conditionally significant tornadoes exists today in the NE ahead of a anomalously impressive environment. But I think there's more to this day that may limit it significantly. The HRRR has modeled consistent subsidence that has been evident, yet it has chose to fire storms regardless. They don't appear particularly intense and they deal with a strong surface inversion filling already by 21z. I have questions. Is this subsidence being overdone by the HRRR? And maybe after all, we will see strong enough recovery to fire potential for significant tornadoes later? We'll see. Destabilization is far from started in the NE and will not start for another few hours. Our QLCS tornado threat is currently beginning in SE TX.
 
WeathermanLeprechaun said:
Potential for conditionally significant tornadoes exists today in the NE ahead of a anomalously impressive environment. But I think there's more to this day that may limit it significantly. The HRRR has modeled consistent subsidence that has been evident, yet it has chose to fire storms regardless. They don't appear particularly intense and they deal with a strong surface inversion filling already by 21z. I have questions. Is this subsidence being overdone by the HRRR? And maybe after all, we will see strong enough recovery to fire potential for significant tornadoes later? We'll see. Destabilization is far from started in the NE and will not start for another few hours. Our QLCS tornado threat is currently beginning in SE TX.
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Yep, not liking what I see on the radar. But i’ve been through this time and time again. Ready and prepared.
 
That tidbit from the MCD that @Sky_I565 posted is definitely worrisome. I didn't even notice that earlier when I read it.
 
Overview of the 12Z CAMs. Kinematics aren't particularly impressive, but QLCS setups can sometimes do their own thing, and there will be enough, with 0-500m SRH on the order of 100-125 m2/s2 across a wide area of AL into GA as the LLJ kicks up. Actual instability versus modelled off the RAP is not necessarily under-or-overestimated, but it's off geographically, so not confident in current projections for thermodynamics. If the typical dynamics hold true, though, expect a few surprises along I-20 this evening in Alabama and maybe a few spin-ups in the Carroll-Heard-Troup County areas in western Georgia. Sun is out and shining bright today, so that may help instability in Georgia. See FFC AFD below - they seem fairly confident in at least a limited risk.
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 229 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Showers and Storms Return:

The main weather concern of the short term period will be a cold
front and line of showers and storms moving through the area late
this evening through early Thursday. Out ahead of this front, deep
southwest flow will bring a very warm and humid airmass over the
area throughout today. Aside from some morning low clouds and fog,
skies will be partly sunny and rain-free, as subsidence from a
ridge to our southeast helps prevent daytime convection.

From late afternoon to around sunset, the NW to SE oriented cold
front and line of strong to severe storms will be racing across
the Tennessee Valley. As this line starts to push into the far
northwest corner of GA near sunset, there will likely still be
some instability (500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE) to work with, supporting
a threat for severe weather as it pushes towards the Atlanta metro
by around midnight. This area is under a Marginal Risk (Level 1
of 5) from SPC, with the primary threat being damaging wind gusts,
but hail and a brief spin up tornado are also possible. This
Marginal Risk extends southwest along the GA/AL border down past
Columbus, which is due to guidance continuing to show a potential
surge in the line as it moves into these areas later in the
evening. This surge is being driven by a negatively tilted
shortwave sliding across the Gulf states. The line of storms is
expected to gradually weaken as it moves south/east through the
rest of north and central Georgia overnight where the environment
becomes less favorable. By early Thursday, the front and
weakening line of showers and storms will be pushing into east-
central GA, with dry and cool air rapidly filling in behind it
with breezy northwest winds.
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models-2026031112-f048.uh03_max.us_se.gif
 
WeathermanLeprechaun said:
Potential for conditionally significant tornadoes exists today in the NE ahead of a anomalously impressive environment. But I think there's more to this day that may limit it significantly. The HRRR has modeled consistent subsidence that has been evident, yet it has chose to fire storms regardless. They don't appear particularly intense and they deal with a strong surface inversion filling already by 21z. I have questions. Is this subsidence being overdone by the HRRR? And maybe after all, we will see strong enough recovery to fire potential for significant tornadoes later? We'll see. Destabilization is far from started in the NE and will not start for another few hours. Our QLCS tornado threat is currently beginning in SE TX.
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Seems like these storms appear to be saying no to my statement regarding subsidence. If this is the case, then a conditional significant tornado threat
 
Dang, you rarely see posts like this first one. Definitely a glimpse into the human impact of these storms. Second post is some pretty decent analysis. Looks like it could have been a manufactured home, but the stubbing of the shrubs out front is pretty impressive.



 
Grand Poo Bah said:
Dang, you rarely see posts like this first one. Definitely a glimpse into the human impact of these storms. Second post is some pretty decent analysis. Looks like it could have been a manufactured home, but the stubbing of the shrubs out front is pretty impressive.



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Believe it or not, thats a CMU home and according to Nick, it was also anchored.

 
speedbump305 said:
So far, not a lot more damage updates/photos have been posted or shared. Could be a really good thing if the tornadoes thankfully didn’t hit much else or a really bad thing if they did in the more rural areas.
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We are still missing photos from:
  • Wheatfield
  • Brems
  • Toto
  • W of Lake Village
  • N of Pontiac
All of these areas were hit.
 
Ozonelayer said:
Believe it or not, thats a CMU home and according to Nick, it was also anchored.

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I can't see the embed, what EF level does it seem like?
 


If this is legitimate and was measured, this would be breaking the state record for hail by a massive amount. The previous record was under 5 inches (this storm has already broken that multiple times).
 
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