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Severe Weather 3/4 - 3/8

VultureDirge89 said:
Yeah, I was going to say for all that trash talking Broyles has become a bit of a meme in the severe wx community, his track record is actually decent especially within the 3 day forecast range.
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He has a very high verification percentage on high risk issuances, that was before factoring in 4/2 last year.

One of the most telling things I see when I watch interviews with Broyles, or Rich Thompson, and former SPC forecaster Roger Edwards is that when discussing a forecast or a decision, they’ll preface it with: “in my experience”. It’s their job, and countless hours, lessons learned, and years of experience are worth way more than the opinion of weekend warriors on Twitter who look at models a couple of times a day before an event.

Now, that’s not to say bu$t$ won’t happen, they will. The atmosphere is a chaotic and fluid dynamic system. Those bu$t$ are the exceptions not the rules though, these guys are the best in the world for a reason.
 
looks like the threat for most northern parts of the risk is mostly not there anymore, looked at a couple of soundings and more models, doesn't seem super likely for anything severe (if there were, its mostly gonna be a wind threat i think). looks to me more like a southern u.s threat. (friday threat)
 
First good sniff of all the CAMS for Friday evening is interesting.

HRRR has a similar synoptic pattern to what the NAM has been showing, maybe slightly less of a positive tilt/less sharply SW-NE oriented cold front. It develops a potent parameter space along the dryline down in Oklahoma but hasn't fired much if any robust simulated convection within it as of 0Z Saturday.

HRW-FV3 OTOH is quite similar to the GFS' more robust negative tilt at 500mb, and faster surface progression. The model wars continue...
 
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00z RRFS has a pretty spicy line of storms moving thru North MS by 4pm Saturday. Hence why I believe we'll be put under some categorical risk for Saturday.Screenshot 2026-03-04 214208.png
 
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jackhutwx said:
okay haha i take back my statement, looked at NAM 3k CONUS soundings, looks like 8 hours of severe weather for me! (one of which is "marginal tornado", four of which are "tornado", one of which is "marginal severe", two of which are "severe")
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The HRRR also develops the warm sector as far north as southern Wisconsin Friday evening. However as I and at least one other person noted previously, our initiating mechanism is somewhat in question this far north.
 
KakashiHatake2000 said:
I wouldn’t really take for granted the possible hazard type have to look at all of the different things on the sounding and apparently its a algorithm for possible hazard type
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Correct. It's the algorithm's "best guess" as to what hazards would be possible in the environment depicted on the forecast sounding. It doesn't imply severe weather would be occurring constantly throughout the entire time the environment is present.
 
One thing I'm noticing, even with the NAM's more strung-out, positive-tilt solution, the surface winds aren't too veered. Pretty much straight out of the south across the warm sector. Could see at least a shot at some semi-discrete convection if that verifies. Not a perfect setup by any means, but not the worst I've seen, either.
 
Grand Poo Bah said:
Ryan Hall is extremely bullish on Friday if that means anything. He's predicting an outlook upgrade to moderate.
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I guess less so for CSU-MLP. That tornado risk especially is suspiciously low given the setup.
 
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