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Severe Weather 3/4 - 3/8

647584486_966777922384662_4821918630070470872_n.jpg

What one of the news stations covering the DFW area shows.
All eyes are on the cap
 
rushdude said:
647584486_966777922384662_4821918630070470872_n.jpg

What one of the news stations covering the DFW area shows.
All eyes are on the cap
Click to expand...
A few tornadoes may occur with sustained supercells or embedded QLCS
circulations across the central Plains/Midwest along/south of the
warm front given favorable low-level shear and enlarged/curved
hodographs. A strong tornado appears possible with any supercells
this evening as low-level shear strengthens in tandem with a
south-southwesterly low-level jet. The Enhanced Risk has been
expanded a little north/westward in northeast KS, southeast NE, and
southwest IA to account for the very large hail potential with
initial supercell development. Some consideration was also given to
greater severe wind probabilities in IA, but confidence in a more
concentrated corridor of damaging winds is low given the weaker
instability forecast with eastward extent across the Midwest.
Click to expand...
 
Ozonelayer said:
So, do you guys think these storms near OKC will try anything? The 12z soundings are pretty conducive environment for severe thunderstorms and shear is only going to increase as we tread further into the day
Click to expand...
I would be very, very surprised if the current storms result in a severe weather outbreak. Much more likely to kill the threat than become an outbreak.
 
Man my sump pump has just not stopped since I went to bed. We must have gotten like 2" of rain.

I just hope the skies don't clear out over here, I am dreading a 10% tornado upgrade by noon.
 
GXSC said:
Man my sump pump has just not stopped since I went to bed. We must have gotten like 2" of rain.

I just hope the skies don't clear out over here, I am dreading a 10% tornado upgrade by noon.
Click to expand...
Even here in Ontario we've been getting dumped on and it's just recently slowed down. We've also had over an inch (the backyard is a swamp right now lol).

Officially we have a "chance of strong thunderstorms" later today but I don't think that's going to verify since I don't see this cloud cover breaking anytime soon.
 
I’ve seen a lot of people on here recently calling busts well ahead of events. Pretty dangerous to be saying anything like that. Just my opinion but it’s been the last few events and things have verified at least to some extent.

I’m not sure why people make absolute statements about anything until after it happens…
 
cniemczura said:
I’ve seen a lot of people on here recently calling busts well ahead of events. Pretty dangerous to be saying anything like that. Just my opinion but it’s been the last few events and things have verified at least to some extent.

I’m not sure why people make absolute statements about anything until after it happens…
Click to expand...
No should be making any decisions based on what random posters on a message board are saying, and if they are, that is on them and not on the poster. If people arent allowed to post their opinions of on going events (positively or negatively) it kind of defeats the purpose of having a message board.
 
Unfortunately the sun is starting to come out, we have a decent amount of clearing over here.
 
Meanwhile in the Midwest...

HRRR just threw a curveball with a rogue supercell right through the Chicago metro at rush hour. Although I'd take it with a whole shaker full of salt given how it handled yesterday.

Image refuses to attach due to a "server error" for some reason. 16Z run at FH006 for those curious.

Environment it's depicted in would certainly support tornadoes. Interestingly, SPC maintains the 5%+CIG1 for southern Wisconsin but excludes northeastern Illinois.

Quite overcast as we approach noon. Satellite does show clouds thinning out to our south and southwest.
 
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