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Severe Weather 3/4 - 3/8

E LIMITED WITH EASTWARD EXTENT ACROSS THESE AREAS.

A FEW TORNADOES MAY OCCUR WITH SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS OR EMBEDDED QLCS
CIRCULATIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST ALONG/SOUTH OF THE
WARM FRONT GIVEN FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND ENLARGED/CURVED
HODOGRAPHS. A STRONG TORNADO APPEARS POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELLS
THIS EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR STRENGTHENS IN TANDEM WITH A
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET. THE ENHANCED RISK HAS BEEN
EXPANDED A LITTLE NORTH/WESTWARD IN NORTHEAST KS, SOUTHEAST NE, AND
SOUTHWEST IA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE VERY LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL WITH
INITIAL SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. SOME CONSIDERATION WAS ALSO GIVEN TO
GREATER SEVERE WIND PROBABILITIES IN IA, BUT CONFIDENCE IN A MORE
CONCENTRATED CORRIDOR OF DAMAGING WINDS IS LOW GIVEN THE WEAKER
INSTABILITY FORECAST WITH EASTWARD EXTENT ACROSS THE MIDWEST.

..SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS

CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE DRYLINE IN OK/TX
REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, AS LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE WEAK AND STRONGER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DISPLACED TO
THE NORTH OF THESE AREAS. STILL, RECENT HRRR/RAP/NAM GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT MLCIN WILL BE MINIMAL BY PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING, WITH
MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE ALONG/EAST OF THE DRYLINE. IF ANY
CELLS CAN FORM AND BE SUSTAINED, THEY WOULD LIKELY BECOME SEVERE AND
POSE A THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOTED ON THE 12Z OUN OBSERVED SOUNDING, ALONG
WITH AROUND 35-45 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AIDING UPDRAFT
ORGANIZATION. THE TORNADO THREAT WOULD ALSO INCREASE THIS EVENING
WITH ANY PERSISTENT SUPERCELLS AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENS. REGARDLESS, THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION STILL
APPEARS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN/CONDITIONAL THIS AFTERNOON. A BETTER CHANCE
FOR ROBUST THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS APPARENT LATER THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES SOUTHWARD. BOTH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH THIS OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

MOST GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUES TO SHOW A SOMEWHAT SEPARATE AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FARTHER EAST ACROSS EASTERN OK/WESTERN AR
AND VICINITY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY MIGHT
BE AIDED BY A VERY WEAK MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION MOVING NORTHEASTWARD
TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TX. IF THIS CONVECTION DEVELOPS, THEN
IT WOULD POSE A THREAT FOR ALL HAZARDS, INCLUDING LARGE HAIL,
DAMAGING WINDS, AND TORNADOES (SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG). NO
CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE ENHANCED RISK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/OZARKS WITH THIS UPDATE.
 
Kds86z said:
Kansas wow

Click to expand...

Such a quintessential Kansas nocturnal tornado.

This final tornadic cell is the one that I think will get a greater look in case studies moving forward because it became tornadic in what was supposed to be a stable environment at the surface. I would guess that the dynamics of the storm interactions and mergers played a major role in causing this one to become not only tornadic, but significantly tornadic.
 
There's a cap in place at the moment for North-central Texas. Maybe that's why they put parts of DFW under a marginal risk.
TOR risk hasn't changed, still 2% with hatched.
 
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