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Severe Weather 2026

Feels like the GFS has been insistent on a quality, broad/amplified (but not too amplified), negatively-tilted trough eventually digging into the West and ejecting across the central CONUS for about the last six weeks, but it always gets pushed further out in time and never actually verifies. 06Z run that just came in has it at about FH354.

Do we eventually bump into the "stopped clock" paradox, or just keep kicking the can down the road until next spring?
 
CheeselandSkies said:
Feels like the GFS has been insistent on a quality, broad/amplified (but not too amplified), negatively-tilted trough eventually digging into the West and ejecting across the central CONUS for about the last six weeks, but it always gets pushed further out in time and never actually verifies. 06Z run that just came in has it at about FH354.

Do we eventually bump into the "stopped clock" paradox, or just keep kicking the can down the road until next spring?
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Also extremely far out but the Euro AI ensemble has a very strong signal for 300 hours out
1794006486102.png
 
A rather conditional, low end scenario but the Euro seems to like a trough digging more SE on the 11th and inducing a low end svr setup over W Kentucky with strong ascent on the end of the 300mb jet max. Given lack of strong moisture return, threat may be more precluded.
 
LOL!
 
Ozonelayer said:
Figured since I did something similar last year around this time, what are the most memorable weather events of this year for ya'
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just some off the top of my head, ik theres a lot more


4/27 bust
east coast bust
3/16
6/17 southern illinois outbreak
the january winter storm that caused a lot of power outages with the ice accumulation
3/15-16 kankakee ef3
4/23 enid ef4
6/11 midwest outbreak
8/11 oswego illinois ef0 (significant for me ig, tornado down my street)
7/21 east coast sig wind outbreak
7/27 appleton wisconsin ef3 (biggest debris ball on radar/ tds of 2026?)
6/21 southeast illinois / southwest Indiana tornado outbreak

or really any Illinois 2% tor risk day lol /j
 
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Because I think it's not gonna get a lot of attention, the 4/17 Illinois/Wisconsin outbreak. While it gets overshadowed by events like June 11th and Enid, at the time it was bigger than our other outbreaks in the year and from my perspective was the first "big" outbreak I got to watch unfold.
In terms of individual tornadoes from that day, you had the two tornadoes by Rochester, the ef3s in Wisconsin, and the Rockford and Lena tornadoes in Illinois.

Other than that, my top events of the year are, in order,
-June 11th
-Enid
-June 17th (While it didn't come close to its ceiling, the forecast cycle and chaos of the outbreak give it a well-earned spot on my list)
-April 17th
-March 10th
-May 17th (and 18th)
-May 6th

It's also fair to say that 2026, despite the highlights, will forever have a legacy as a season of the Non-Event. The three moderate risks that didn't (one in my own backyard!) and the constant downtrends made this season a very frustrating one from both a chasing and forecasting standpoint.
I don't know how active 2027 will be, or if there's gonna be any impossible forecasts, but I do hope it's gonna be as much fun to watch as this one was.
 
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