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Severe Weather 2026

Feels like the GFS has been insistent on a quality, broad/amplified (but not too amplified), negatively-tilted trough eventually digging into the West and ejecting across the central CONUS for about the last six weeks, but it always gets pushed further out in time and never actually verifies. 06Z run that just came in has it at about FH354.

Do we eventually bump into the "stopped clock" paradox, or just keep kicking the can down the road until next spring?
 
Feels like the GFS has been insistent on a quality, broad/amplified (but not too amplified), negatively-tilted trough eventually digging into the West and ejecting across the central CONUS for about the last six weeks, but it always gets pushed further out in time and never actually verifies. 06Z run that just came in has it at about FH354.

Do we eventually bump into the "stopped clock" paradox, or just keep kicking the can down the road until next spring?
Also extremely far out but the Euro AI ensemble has a very strong signal for 300 hours out
1794006486102.png
 
A rather conditional, low end scenario but the Euro seems to like a trough digging more SE on the 11th and inducing a low end svr setup over W Kentucky with strong ascent on the end of the 300mb jet max. Given lack of strong moisture return, threat may be more precluded.
 
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