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Severe Weather 2026



229 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2026

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS ACROSS OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS...

..SUMMARY

SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A FEW TORNADOES THE MAIN THREATS.

..CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS

A LEAD SPEED MAX IS EXPECTED TO EJECT QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AS AN INITIAL LEE CYCLONE
LIKEWISE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD FROM NORTHEAST CO TO SOUTHWEST MN AND
WEAKENS GRADUALLY. SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS IS THEN EXPECTED ACROSS
KS IN ADVANCE OF THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING EASTWARD
FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
SECONDARY CYCLONE IN KS WILL HELP MAINTAIN A 40-50 KT SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM EASTERN KS INTO
EASTERN OK, WITH ASSOCIATED NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF MID 60S
BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE WARM SECTOR.

MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE LIMITED BY PRIOR DAYS
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE UPSTREAM SOURCE REGION, BUT
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL ALSO BE WEAK. THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING IN CLOUD
BREAKS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIDLEVEL DRY SLOT, WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE IN
THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
APPEARS PROBABLE BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON FROM JUST EAST OF THE KS
TRIPLE POINT SOUTHWARD ALONG THE DRY LINE/PACIFIC COLD FRONT INTO
WESTERN OK. DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
FAVOR A MIX OF SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SEVERE OUTFLOW GUSTS AND A FEW TORNADOES, AS WELL AS ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL INITIALLY. STORMS SHOULD TEND TO EVOLVE INTO MORE LINEAR
STRUCTURES INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR OCCASIONAL
WIND DAMAGE AND/OR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WITH EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS.

..THOMPSON.. 10/31/2026
 
Last edited:
Tornado Tomorrow: "hmmm. I should have taken a left turn at Albuquerque."
 
Kds86z

Thread 'Severe Weather Threat November 1-3'

Severe weather returns right as November kicks off. Tomorrow could feature some supercells and tornadoes in the Southwest. Monday could be more significant and has uptrended a bit possibly extending to Tuesday/Wednesday and will monitor to add dates. For Monday guidance shows a little more of a compact Low now over Western Kansas. The influence of a SubTropical Jet will increase the Amplified 500mb Flow. LLJ may crank up after dark.

1230 PM CDT SAT OCT 31
THE LEAD SPEED MAX WILL CROSS SOUTHERN AZ SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NM SUNDAY NIGHT. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION THE PAST FEW...
  • Like

Can pin mod @MichelleH ? Thanks
 
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