Severe Weather 2026

[N0mz]

 

[UncleJuJu98]

12z euro is a looker for October 1st.

October 1st through the 3rd should start being circled for elevated chances of severe, both the GFS and EURO are on board with elevated severe chances.

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

I'm not gonna look too deeply into this one yet. Euro usually is the first inboard with svr threats but I want to wait a bit before we go "hm" with this one. Don't expect a writeup unless I see sigtor+ potential.

What is say for now: Looks like a rather sloppy trough that favors more linear/embedded convection and with a strong LLJ, it's is a classic synoptic run of the mill QLCS event look ish atm. GFS not allowing for strong moisture return hence why it has nothing but I'm sure it will configure this solution eventually. Any more details are TBD

 

[KakashiHatake2000]

 

[JPWX]

So just to get ahead of what could be our first legit severe weather threat mid/late next week, here's some stats:
Last October Moderate Risk: October 12th, 2021
Last October Tornado Outbreak for North MS/Mid-South/Deep South areas: October 13th, 2014 (Moderate Risk)
Last October High Risk: October 26th, 2010 (Mid-South into AL were affected, but outbreak more confined from Illinois to Ohio)