N0mz
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Severe Weather 2026
- Thread starter KevinH
- Start date
12z euro is a looker for October 1st.
October 1st through the 3rd should start being circled for elevated chances of severe, both the GFS and EURO are on board with elevated severe chances.
October 1st through the 3rd should start being circled for elevated chances of severe, both the GFS and EURO are on board with elevated severe chances.
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WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
I'm not gonna look too deeply into this one yet. Euro usually is the first inboard with svr threats but I want to wait a bit before we go "hm" with this one. Don't expect a writeup unless I see sigtor+ potential.
What is say for now: Looks like a rather sloppy trough that favors more linear/embedded convection and with a strong LLJ, it's is a classic synoptic run of the mill QLCS event look ish atm. GFS not allowing for strong moisture return hence why it has nothing but I'm sure it will configure this solution eventually. Any more details are TBD
What is say for now: Looks like a rather sloppy trough that favors more linear/embedded convection and with a strong LLJ, it's is a classic synoptic run of the mill QLCS event look ish atm. GFS not allowing for strong moisture return hence why it has nothing but I'm sure it will configure this solution eventually. Any more details are TBD
KakashiHatake2000
Member
So just to get ahead of what could be our first legit severe weather threat mid/late next week, here's some stats:
Last October Moderate Risk: October 12th, 2021
Last October Tornado Outbreak for North MS/Mid-South/Deep South areas: October 13th, 2014 (Moderate Risk)
Last October High Risk: October 26th, 2010 (Mid-South into AL were affected, but outbreak more confined from Illinois to Ohio)
Last October Moderate Risk: October 12th, 2021
Last October Tornado Outbreak for North MS/Mid-South/Deep South areas: October 13th, 2014 (Moderate Risk)
Last October High Risk: October 26th, 2010 (Mid-South into AL were affected, but outbreak more confined from Illinois to Ohio)
Kds86z
Member
Very interesting
Kds86z
Member
My basement is going to be converted to an indoor pool at this point.
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
The remnants of Polo will lead to a extremely interesting severe weather threat in Kansas next Wednesday. The low drives very impressive tropical moisture into E KS and combined with orthogonal 300 mb flow + strong LLJ, a opportunity for discrete storms with all hazards.
The low does drive significantly warmer 700 mb temperatures into the area, making it conditional if convection can sustain. Height falls will be enough around the area to make me interested.
A analog to anything like this would be 9/14/25. Low level thermodynamics will be far much different as that was a MCV, whereas this is tropical remnants acting like a MCV except they also drive dry air into a environment. Watch this one.
There may be a detailed writeup coming to TalkWeather soon should the low level response strengthen even more.
The low does drive significantly warmer 700 mb temperatures into the area, making it conditional if convection can sustain. Height falls will be enough around the area to make me interested.
A analog to anything like this would be 9/14/25. Low level thermodynamics will be far much different as that was a MCV, whereas this is tropical remnants acting like a MCV except they also drive dry air into a environment. Watch this one.
There may be a detailed writeup coming to TalkWeather soon should the low level response strengthen even more.
Kds86z
Member
- Thread starter
- #2,691
KevinH
Member
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
That comment was well ago and models trended away from it. It's the remnants of Polo we are watching now in S NM/Kansas. That Dixie potential has gone.
I guess it's time to turn on the SPC Twitter notifications again *sigh*
akt1985
Member
Could we see a spin up tornado or two this next weekend along the Gulf Coast with a coastal low forecasted to move inland? Regardless, south Alabama and Georgia might see beneficial rain to help ease the drought.
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
The shear profiles in S NM are absolutely incredible for late September tmrw . Given lacking instability, a significant to intense tor threat will be thankfully limited. But trends will need to be watched. If instability goes up, well, you got problems.
Must note though for the minute, it is a brief tor or two. Dodging a huge bullet given how strong the remnant shortwaves are.
Must note though for the minute, it is a brief tor or two. Dodging a huge bullet given how strong the remnant shortwaves are.
Kds86z
Member
Day 3
ODEL FORECASTS VARY CONCERNING THE EXACT POSITION OF THE STRONGEST
INSTABILITY ON WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST ECMWF SEEMS TO BE CLOSE TO
CONSENSUS, WITH MLCAPE INCREASING INTO THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE
FROM EAST OF LUBBOCK TO NEAR LAWTON. THIS LOCATION WILL BE JUST TO
THE EAST OF THE MID-LEVEL JET, WHICH WILL PROVIDE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT
21Z NEAR THE FORECAST INSTABILITY AXIS HAVE 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 40
KNOTS, WHICH WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH A THREAT OF WIND DAMAGE
AND HAIL. ALTHOUGH STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY INITIALLY BE DISCRETE, A
LINE IS EXPECTED TO FORM AS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE FILLS THE EAST OF
THE DRYLINE. THIS LINE WILL BE CAPABLE OF WIND DAMAGE. DURING THE
EARLY EVENING, 0-3 KM STORM-RELATIVE HELICITY IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE INTO THE 200 TO 250 M2/S2 RANGE, SUGGESTING THAT A TORNADO
THREAT WILL ALSO DEVELOP WITH EMBEDDED ROTATING STORMS IN THE LINE.
ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE MID TO LATE EVENING AS THE
LINE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST
TEXAS.
ODEL FORECASTS VARY CONCERNING THE EXACT POSITION OF THE STRONGEST
INSTABILITY ON WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST ECMWF SEEMS TO BE CLOSE TO
CONSENSUS, WITH MLCAPE INCREASING INTO THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE
FROM EAST OF LUBBOCK TO NEAR LAWTON. THIS LOCATION WILL BE JUST TO
THE EAST OF THE MID-LEVEL JET, WHICH WILL PROVIDE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT
21Z NEAR THE FORECAST INSTABILITY AXIS HAVE 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 40
KNOTS, WHICH WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH A THREAT OF WIND DAMAGE
AND HAIL. ALTHOUGH STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY INITIALLY BE DISCRETE, A
LINE IS EXPECTED TO FORM AS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE FILLS THE EAST OF
THE DRYLINE. THIS LINE WILL BE CAPABLE OF WIND DAMAGE. DURING THE
EARLY EVENING, 0-3 KM STORM-RELATIVE HELICITY IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE INTO THE 200 TO 250 M2/S2 RANGE, SUGGESTING THAT A TORNADO
THREAT WILL ALSO DEVELOP WITH EMBEDDED ROTATING STORMS IN THE LINE.
ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE MID TO LATE EVENING AS THE
LINE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST
TEXAS.
KakashiHatake2000
Member
jackhutwx
Member
w trey video as always, going to be an interesting week
KakashiHatake2000
Member
Yep and yep