Severe Weather 2026

[eep]

The shear profiles in S NM are absolutely incredible for late September tmrw . Given lacking instability, a significant to intense tor threat will be thankfully limited. But trends will need to be watched. If instability goes up, well, you got problems.

Must note though for the minute, it is a brief tor or two. Dodging a huge bullet given how strong the remnant shortwaves are.

Nuclear shear low cape in my time weather watching can still be a pretty big problem. Pi day had 1000-2000 cape and we all know what sort of tornadoes that day saw. Albeit I guess we are working with the desert southwest so it's still different.

 

[Brice W]

Nuclear shear low cape in my time weather watching can still be a pretty big problem. Pi day had 1000-2000 cape and we all know what sort of tornadoes that day saw. Albeit I guess we are working with the desert southwest so it's still different.

Today looks almost like the opposite problem thermodynamically with the much more tropical, skinny CAPE profiles and weaker lapse rates.
The hodographs can be as ridiculous as they want, but if the updrafts aren’t strong enough to really utilize them before convection grows upscale, that probably keeps the ceiling in check. If we somehow get better destabilization and a sustained discrete storm in S NM though, that’s where I’d start paying very close attention but that looks very unlikely.