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October 1st through the 3rd should start being circled for elevated chances of severe, both the GFS and EURO are on board with elevated severe chances.
I'm not gonna look too deeply into this one yet. Euro usually is the first inboard with svr threats but I want to wait a bit before we go "hm" with this one. Don't expect a writeup unless I see sigtor+ potential.
What is say for now: Looks like a rather sloppy trough that favors more linear/embedded convection and with a strong LLJ, it's is a classic synoptic run of the mill QLCS event look ish atm. GFS not allowing for strong moisture return hence why it has nothing but I'm sure it will configure this solution eventually. Any more details are TBD
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