HRRR isn't as aggressive, but it's not a snoozer either, popping a few notable cells near Anniston in the evening.
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Severe Weather 2026
- Thread starter KevinH
- Start date
Sometime that should really be kept an eye on Clancy and it’s something that contributed to a major uptick in tornado potential in Alabama before. Is the rapidly deepening low. It’s been trending towards a rapid deepening and that tends to increase wind shear more favorably for the Deep South considering where the low is. January 12 2023 the day that produced the Kingston multi vortex ef3 tornado. The low pressure dropped a lot quicker if I remember correctly and backed the winds more turning the day into a deadly tornado outbreak. Not saying tommorw will be. But something that needs to be watched. Although my memory maybe a bit foggy on that event. But I do think from what I read that deeping low pressures back the winds more
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Kds86z
Member
Newest day 2
SOME TORNADO RISK ALSO IS APPARENT, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
TRIPLE POINT, WHERE 0-1 KM SRH WILL BE MAXIMIZED. HOWEVER, THE
IMPACT OF EARLY DAY CONVECTION AND CLOUDINESS ON LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES/DESTABILIZATION LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENT OF MORE
ROBUST TORNADO POTENTIAL AS LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY MAY BE
INSUFFICIENT TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE SMALL AREA OF ENHANCED
LOW-LEVEL SRH, PRECLUDING HIGHER TORNADO PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
SOME TORNADO RISK ALSO IS APPARENT, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
TRIPLE POINT, WHERE 0-1 KM SRH WILL BE MAXIMIZED. HOWEVER, THE
IMPACT OF EARLY DAY CONVECTION AND CLOUDINESS ON LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES/DESTABILIZATION LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENT OF MORE
ROBUST TORNADO POTENTIAL AS LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY MAY BE
INSUFFICIENT TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE SMALL AREA OF ENHANCED
LOW-LEVEL SRH, PRECLUDING HIGHER TORNADO PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
Upgrade to 5 or 10%?
Kds86z
Member
It’s 2%
akt1985
Member
A Tornado Watch is out now for most of Missouri this evening.
Kds86z
Member
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
SRW is notably around 30 kts, and i feel like this would favor very grungy, anemic mini supercells. Think if a tornado somehow managed out of this, it'd be from a random mesoscale vorticity interaction.
Speaking of, we just had a very interesting "failed" torgen case in Missouri. The supercell seemingly wrapped up with a good nudger, but considering the nature of today's setup, I expected this nudger to cause a imbalance of the storm's downdraft. It had two strong couplets and failed both times. Mini supercell setups need stretching more than nudging because it can hurt a storm significantly. We were close to a strong tornado but something cut it off in its inflow or the nudger was just too strong. Very, very interesting and proves there's so much more to nudgers than what we've know about.
Don't think it completely failed, think there was a small spin-up at some point. Also the southeast cell has some interesting regions of spin on it.
EDIT: Also the cell is attempting to hook again interestingly.
TornadoFan
Member
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
No concrete evidence yet to prove it touched down or anything. All I said is being put to prove as every single nudge a cell has got hasn't resulted in much.
Mini sups often tend to accomplish a lot more than I expect them to; to me, they're perhaps the most fascinating. We've had quite a number of incidents in Georgia over the past few years where some very weak, low-topped storms in relatively unfavorable environments produced tornadoes, sometimes fairly potent ones. It seemingly comes down mostly to chance, but when they line up in the right spot, they will absolutely take advantage of even the weakest of boundaries and localized areas of enhanced helicity. There's definitely a lot of subtlety to the mesoscale and microscale of instances like these, and there seems to be a lot yet to be learned about what exactly happens before and during.
Tomorrow doesn't strike me as much of a tornado threat, and only a modest damaging wind threat, but it often ends up being weird setups like these that catch people, me included, off guard. Interesting from a storm-watcher perspective, but not very notable for the average Joe.
KakashiHatake2000
Member
Looks like a (full fledged?) tornado outbreak going on in south America lots and lots of videos coming out from there
It's been a pretty historic year for them while it's been rather quiet up here.
SaWxRodrigo
Member
As predicted, a discrete left-moving tornadic supercell with a very pronounced Northside Hook Echo developed south of the Argentine provinces of Santa Fe and Entre Ríos, producing this strong tornado between the towns of Bernardo de Irigoyen and San Genaro, Santa Fé:
And also as predicted, as the cold front advances parallel to the SALLJ, all convection is evolving into a linear system over 1,000 km in diameter, which will sweep across central Argentina and Uruguay in the early hours of tomorrow morning. Multiple reports of destructive winds are coming in...
And also as predicted, as the cold front advances parallel to the SALLJ, all convection is evolving into a linear system over 1,000 km in diameter, which will sweep across central Argentina and Uruguay in the early hours of tomorrow morning. Multiple reports of destructive winds are coming in...