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Severe Weather 2026

Clancy said:
HRRR isn't as aggressive, but it's not a snoozer either, popping a few notable cells near Anniston in the evening.
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Sometime that should really be kept an eye on Clancy and it’s something that contributed to a major uptick in tornado potential in Alabama before. Is the rapidly deepening low. It’s been trending towards a rapid deepening and that tends to increase wind shear more favorably for the Deep South considering where the low is. January 12 2023 the day that produced the Kingston multi vortex ef3 tornado. The low pressure dropped a lot quicker if I remember correctly and backed the winds more turning the day into a deadly tornado outbreak. Not saying tommorw will be. But something that needs to be watched. Although my memory maybe a bit foggy on that event. But I do think from what I read that deeping low pressures back the winds more
 
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Newest day 2

SOME TORNADO RISK ALSO IS APPARENT, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
TRIPLE POINT, WHERE 0-1 KM SRH WILL BE MAXIMIZED. HOWEVER, THE
IMPACT OF EARLY DAY CONVECTION AND CLOUDINESS ON LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES/DESTABILIZATION LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENT OF MORE
ROBUST TORNADO POTENTIAL AS LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY MAY BE
INSUFFICIENT TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE SMALL AREA OF ENHANCED
LOW-LEVEL SRH, PRECLUDING HIGHER TORNADO PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
 
Kds86z said:
Newest day 2

SOME TORNADO RISK ALSO IS APPARENT, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
TRIPLE POINT, WHERE 0-1 KM SRH WILL BE MAXIMIZED. HOWEVER, THE
IMPACT OF EARLY DAY CONVECTION AND CLOUDINESS ON LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES/DESTABILIZATION LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENT OF MORE
ROBUST TORNADO POTENTIAL AS LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY MAY BE
INSUFFICIENT TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE SMALL AREA OF ENHANCED
LOW-LEVEL SRH, PRECLUDING HIGHER TORNADO PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
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Upgrade to 5 or 10%?
 
McKinney said that tree debris was falling out of the sky on the St Aubert storm. Now tor warned.

(Note that any spin up was probably weak)
 
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Clancy said:
Sounding from Coosa County, AL off the NAM Saturday evening. Obviously, not a classic tornado sounding for this area, but not what you'd expect for early August in the South, either. Straight-line winds will still probably be the primary hazard, but could certainly see some spin-ups supported by our synoptic forcing. Instability Sunday actually looks to be a good bit higher across parts of Alabama and Georgia, so could pose another round of severe storms if sufficient initiation occurs. Wind profiles a lot more unidirectional at that point, as the low moves off to the north and east throughout the day into early Monday.
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SRW is notably around 30 kts, and i feel like this would favor very grungy, anemic mini supercells. Think if a tornado somehow managed out of this, it'd be from a random mesoscale vorticity interaction.


Speaking of, we just had a very interesting "failed" torgen case in Missouri. The supercell seemingly wrapped up with a good nudger, but considering the nature of today's setup, I expected this nudger to cause a imbalance of the storm's downdraft. It had two strong couplets and failed both times. Mini supercell setups need stretching more than nudging because it can hurt a storm significantly. We were close to a strong tornado but something cut it off in its inflow or the nudger was just too strong. Very, very interesting and proves there's so much more to nudgers than what we've know about.
 
WeathermanLeprechaun said:
SRW is notably around 30 kts, and i feel like this would favor very grungy, anemic mini supercells. Think if a tornado somehow managed out of this, it'd be from a random mesoscale vorticity interaction.


Speaking of, we just had a very interesting "failed" torgen case in Missouri. The supercell seemingly wrapped up with a good nudger, but considering the nature of today's setup, I expected this nudger to cause a imbalance of the storm's downdraft. It had two strong couplets and failed both times. Mini supercell setups need stretching more than nudging because it can hurt a storm significantly. We were close to a strong tornado but something cut it off in its inflow or the nudger was just too strong. Very, very interesting and proves there's so much more to nudgers than what we've know about.
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Don't think it completely failed, think there was a small spin-up at some point. Also the southeast cell has some interesting regions of spin on it.

EDIT: Also the cell is attempting to hook again interestingly.
 
Also is anyone noticing that the hook is pulling in the southern storm (at least that's what I think is happening?) That's kinda crazy to see.
 
eep said:
Don't think it completely failed, think there was a small spin-up at some point. Also the southeast cell has some interesting regions of spin on it.

EDIT: Also the cell is attempting to hook again interestingly.
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No concrete evidence yet to prove it touched down or anything. All I said is being put to prove as every single nudge a cell has got hasn't resulted in much.
 
WeathermanLeprechaun said:
SRW is notably around 30 kts, and i feel like this would favor very grungy, anemic mini supercells. Think if a tornado somehow managed out of this, it'd be from a random mesoscale vorticity interaction.


Speaking of, we just had a very interesting "failed" torgen case in Missouri. The supercell seemingly wrapped up with a good nudger, but considering the nature of today's setup, I expected this nudger to cause a imbalance of the storm's downdraft. It had two strong couplets and failed both times. Mini supercell setups need stretching more than nudging because it can hurt a storm significantly. We were close to a strong tornado but something cut it off in its inflow or the nudger was just too strong. Very, very interesting and proves there's so much more to nudgers than what we've know about.
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Mini sups often tend to accomplish a lot more than I expect them to; to me, they're perhaps the most fascinating. We've had quite a number of incidents in Georgia over the past few years where some very weak, low-topped storms in relatively unfavorable environments produced tornadoes, sometimes fairly potent ones. It seemingly comes down mostly to chance, but when they line up in the right spot, they will absolutely take advantage of even the weakest of boundaries and localized areas of enhanced helicity. There's definitely a lot of subtlety to the mesoscale and microscale of instances like these, and there seems to be a lot yet to be learned about what exactly happens before and during.

Tomorrow doesn't strike me as much of a tornado threat, and only a modest damaging wind threat, but it often ends up being weird setups like these that catch people, me included, off guard. Interesting from a storm-watcher perspective, but not very notable for the average Joe.
 
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