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Severe Weather 2026

** Key all interests....



National Weather Service Huntsville AL
857 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

- An unsettled pattern will develop next weekend bringing
additional chances for rain and storms.

A more substantial system moves through this weekend and
will be something to keep an eye on for severe storms. Joint
probabilities of shear greater than 30 knots and CAPE exceeding 1000
J/kg have increased to around 30 percent. Various machine learning
algorithms also show low probabilities of severe storms. At this time
it is too early to pin down an exact timeframe of the most likely
period for showers and thunderstorms will be 6-7 days out. However,
it is April and this is typically one of our most active months for
severe storms. Check back for updates as details for the weekend
storm becomes better resolved.
 
Sky_I565 said:
** Attention Mod's.

Think there is anyway to resolve the posting of graphics issue we're currently expericing ?
Looks to be an active week ahead.
Click to expand...

I have no way of helping other than tagging @WesL
 
The April 26-28 period is definitely trending in a more interesting direction over the past several runs. A number of ensemble members on the GEFS are depicting trough ejections that look less zonal and more "classic-looking." Still way too early to do anything other than watch, but the possibility being there is worth noting.
 
Ironic that next week's trough just happened to land on THAT date. I CAN smell the irresponsible hype days away...

There has been decent ensemble agreement to suggest that Sunday and Monday could be interesting events. 18z GFS said Sunday in TX was a non event, but GEFS says a severe threat is very much possible. Ensembles over deterministics anytime this far out because it's so much better than flip flopping every run...
 
tennessee storm chaser said:
That system still week or so out look s interesting with eye brows raised . See it holds lol
Click to expand...
Andrew Brady and StormNet are already posting some interesting graphics on the high probabilities 7-8 days out with his analysis of an elevated threat of tornadic activity on THAT day. Would post them,but as we know...we can't so far.Going to be an interesting week....finally.
 
Me (having said/knowing full well that uptick in severe weather was expected for late April from 4 weeks ago) just sitting here like and waiting for everyone else to come around:

Murder She Wrote Popcorn GIF


@Sky_I565 I made a facebook/twitter post about that very thing on Saturday. "My message to you: I understand that these severe weather threats could occur around the same timeframe as what happened 15 years ago and certainly there is still anxiety whenever a severe threat arises (especially around this timeframe). My job is to forecast and help give you the best information possible as best I can without the hype."
 
JPWX said:
Me (having said/knowing full well that uptick in severe weather was expected for late April from 4 weeks ago) just sitting here like and waiting for everyone else to come around:

Murder She Wrote Popcorn GIF


@Sky_I565 I made a facebook/twitter post about that very thing on Saturday. "My message to you: I understand that these severe weather threats could occur around the same timeframe as what happened 15 years ago and certainly there is still anxiety whenever a severe threat arises (especially around this timeframe). My job is to forecast and help give you the best information possible as best I can without the hype."
Click to expand...
You did and I agree. The shift is beginning
 
We’re in the middle of the “hype-cast every little event to death” era, and an upcoming event may be happening on the 15th anniversary of the most violent tornado outbreak ever recorded. I’m so excited for all of the stupid tweets we will see from deterministic runs >4 days out, really just can’t wait.

There certainly is a signal for something potentially significant, though.
 
For the record, ASTORP has a very large 2% contour, smallish 5% already for Monday. A lot of these new machine learning guidance tools are punching hard on this one. On Sunday, it's got a event too. Judging by how things could be, that warm sector could be quite the aerial extent if ensembles hold. Just need to sort out the disagreement first
.
 
I don't think that people actually understand what mentioning this particular day does. You think you're just mentioning a infamous day in weather history because the trough coincidentally lines up with that same day this year.
( i can't upload images)

I'll describe the message.

I quickly commented on someone's community post regarding the severe potential. I mentioned Monday in Dixie and it's uncertainties. Someoen comes along and says "Monday in Dixie, WHAT DAY IS THAT ON?"
Think. Think of who's scrolling. Seeing this, and thinking in their posts from their experience on 4/27 and then it starts a cycle of panic and "WILL IT HAPPEN?"

There are people on this forum that have been affected by 4/27, and I'd like to ask them personally, what goes through your mind when you see certain references to this or that and then a post referencing 4/27/11 like this all over again.

Listen, i might be going a bit over the guardrails but this is a message that would cause mass hysteria if it gained a lot more popularity elsewhere or gained attraction. There's a lot of people with storm anxiety and those messages are like the bait to hook them up and then they're reeled in. Storm anxiety, and PTSD from these storms are a real thing and people throw around these statements like it's nothing. It infuriates me. This is someone I know too from live streams and they can do much better than this. Another person called them out as well as me, but I'm just saying to expect more of this as we lean closer into this period. With the amount of hype this year, there is gonna be a whole lot of this same statement here and there. I might be overthinking this one a bit but I just find it seriously insensitive.
 
Certainly a signal for something in the EPS east of the Plains come early next week, the date obviously being the attention-getter. Broad, low-amplitude troughing across the central states with signs of a relatively suppressed SE ridge would indicate potential trouble for the SE.
 
WeathermanLeprechaun said:
There are people on this forum that have been affected by 4/27, and I'd like to ask them personally, what goes through your mind when you see certain references to this or that and then a post referencing 4/27/11 like this all over again.
Click to expand...
I think a lot of people that were affected by 4/27/11 are smart enough to sniff out the hype. They trust the local mets they relied on, like Spann, NWS, etc. and will only get worked up if they sound the horn. It’s not always the case, but in my experience, those that get hysterical over a 240 hr GFS 500 mb chart are the ones that didn’t live through a major event.
WeathermanLeprechaun said:
Listen, i might be going a bit over the guardrails but this is a message that would cause mass hysteria if it gained a lot more popularity elsewhere or gained attraction. There's a lot of people with storm anxiety and those messages are like the bait to hook them up and then they're reeled in. Storm anxiety, and PTSD from these storms are a real thing and people throw around these statements like it's nothing. It infuriates me. This is someone I know too from live streams and they can do much better than this. Another person called them out as well as me, but I'm just saying to expect more of this as we lean closer into this period. With the amount of hype this year, there is gonna be a whole lot of this same statement here and there. I might be overthinking this one a bit but I just find it seriously insensitive.
Click to expand...
I’ve ranted time and time again about the public and their interpretation of forecasts/warnings. But again, I think those that suffer from weather related PTSD/anxiety (I know as I was one of them) more often than not become some of the most knowledgable people about the subject.

On the comparing side, people will always compare an event with the last major one. Before 4/27, people even on this forum compared potential high end events to 4/3/74 or the Veteran’s Day 2002 outbreak. It’s human nature, but especially when you’re monetized on social media. This event won’t be 4/27. It will be its own unique event that will either fade into history, replace 4/27, or be somewhere in the middle. All you can do is point out the facts and not engage in the hype.
 
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