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Severe Weather 2026

From what I am observing on the GFS and Euro (someone can correct me if I am not seeing this right), it looks like the setup for severe weather during the 4/25 - 4/28 period is non-zero, but not a traditional setup for significant severe weather at this point. Seems like more zonal flow vs. traditional trough ejection.
Really difficult to say one way or another until there's more agreement. The run-to-run variability is still very high. The 25-30th period seems active, but models aren't even that settled on what day might be of most interest, or if perhaps there could be a multi-day event. Sustained zonal flow can still yield significant events, including ones with multiple significant tornadoes. In the Deep South, embedded shortwaves within the larger regime tend to be responsible for individual events in such setups, and during times of persistent zonal flow, you can end up getting multiple events over the course of several days. They definitely aren't proto-typical setups in the sense of having a negatively-tilted trough ejection and often tend to rely on speed shear and mesoscale interactions, but I certainly wouldn't discount them.

Ensembles generally seem to hint at a generally flat pattern during the period, but the 12Z GEFS, for example, shows angled trough ejection from the desert Southwest into the Mid-South. I'm not really putting much stock into any particular evolution, but rather the presence of synoptic energy overall during that time period, which seems plentiful. Last several runs keep sustained zonal flow in place through the beginning of May, so there would be ample opportunities for severe convection, but more hopefully rain. And who knows, by next week there might be nothing at all on the models.
 
The MJO is a HUGE factor during hurricane season.
 
SPC put out a 15% in OK-KS for Day 6
Also, this site feels pretty quiet today considering a fairly substantial (for 2026 standards so far) outbreak yesterday
I haven’t seen any photos of very significant damage yet from yesterday. Usually with a higher end event, you would start to have reports and photos trickle out. Thankfully, most of the tornados were mere weak spin ups with a couple possible stronger (EF2-3) candidates. Probably why it’s so quiet.
 
SPC put out a 15% in OK-KS for Day 6
Also, this site feels pretty quiet today considering a fairly substantial (for 2026 standards so far) outbreak yesterday
After what the last 3 years of activity were like, 2026 definitely has been a bit “muted” so far. So Im assuming it’s a bit difficult to get amped.
Maybe when an exceptional outbreak actually occurs, maybe this Thursday? Is when this site picks up in activity. Honestly though Im hoping for a 2018 type of “quiet”. We need it.
 
After what the last 3 years of activity were like, 2026 definitely has been a bit “muted” so far. So Im assuming it’s a bit difficult to get amped.
Maybe when an exceptional outbreak actually occurs, maybe this Thursday? Is when this site picks up in activity. Honestly though Im hoping for a 2018 type of “quiet”. We need it.
Seems like every single set up this year starts out with a lot of potential and hype, then falls apart and downtrends a day or two close to the event.

We still haven’t had a proper trough ejection and trough geometry for an event. Yesterday was a widespread outbreak, but like you said, it wasn’t exceptional. Regardless of the parameter space and how it looked on models not even a day before.

Also, have to feel for the Oklahoma chasers lol especially with yesterday.
 
Seems like every single set up this year starts out with a lot of potential and hype, then falls apart and downtrends a day or two close to the event.

We still haven’t had a proper trough ejection and trough geometry for an event. Yesterday was a widespread outbreak, but like you said, it wasn’t exceptional. Regardless of the parameter space and how it looked on models not even a day before.

Also, have to feel for the Oklahoma chasers lol especially with yesterday.
Well the thing with yesterday is it could’ve easily have been a high end event, the storm mode actually was more spaced and organized than I thought it would be.

But none of the supercells could really get going and produce long trackers. Mainly due to the fact the jet streak was only 40 to 60knots, which is not that fast at all. So supercells just weren’t getting properly ventilated.

The tell tale sign was that their precip cores weren’t extending out far in front of their updrafts as you would expect to see in a classic supercell. The hodographs from the very beginning, despite being well curved demonstrating good LLshear, the section of them representing the middle to upper levels were short extending.

This isn’t exactly a kill code for a tornado event, but it’s unfavorable if you’re trying to get long trackers and or any tornado that last more than 20minutes.
 
Seems like every single set up this year starts out with a lot of potential and hype, then falls apart and downtrends a day or two close to the event.

We still haven’t had a proper trough ejection and trough geometry for an event. Yesterday was a widespread outbreak, but like you said, it wasn’t exceptional. Regardless of the parameter space and how it looked on models not even a day before.

Also, have to feel for the Oklahoma chasers lol especially with yesterday.
Oklahoma never looked good yesterday tbh haha, but Plains chasers held on to the hope.
 

I've created a thread for Thursday
 

I've created a thread for Thursday
Another southern plains enhanced shaping up more likely
 
Period after 4/23 also looks to get quite active in the southern portion of the great lakes and, as many have been saying already, the south. Seeing an indication for a period of enhanced zonal flow across the OH valley and southwards from D6 to about 280 hours out on some models, which may lead to a chance for a zonal flow event in the region, perhaps multiple. I would post imagery of the GEFS and EPS, but alas, the server error strikes again.
 
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Update, WxNext2 now has more purple for Friday: (source)
That's the most it's put on any event this year so far, except March 10th. On a day 5, too! I guess we'll see whether it's accurate.

Edit: March 10th was the CIG2 day with the Kankakee, IL tornado
Unrelated but WxNext2 really nailed Friday and was the first to show a very strong signal as early as Monday. I'm starting to trust it more and more - it also wasn't fooled by the Carolinas threat earlier this year like the other models were.
 
Tornado season varies a bit every year, but one thing that seems to never change now in this era are the mandatory April HARD freezes that kill off any apricots or cherries I may have enjoyed. Especially apricots. From 88 Thursday to mid 20s tomorrow morning back to nearly 80 by next Friday in PA.
 
O my how the tables have turned. Now, we just watch for this risk to be expanded with additional risks being added.
 
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