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Severe Weather 2026

Confidence is gradually increasing in possible severe potential in the April 25-28 time frame. We're still some 10 days/240 hours out, so lots of room for things to look a lot different, but if there's a time of the year to be on the lookout, it's late April. GEFS ensemble runs hint at trough ejection from the desert Southwest. Some have it ejecting in a more classic fashion that would signal a significant severe event, while others are much flatter and more zonal. Both still pose a severe risk, however, and we have previously had significant events from zonal regimes. While it's way too early to key in on specifics - this presentation could completely disintegrate by next week - I'd certainly be keeping an eye on it if you're anywhere in the southern Plains to the Southeast. Late April is the thermodynamic sweet spot for Dixie tornado events, and if we add strong kinematics to that mix, it could spell trouble.

P.S. @WesL still having trouble uploading media after a cookie reset, any idea what might be causing it?
 
Clancy said:
Confidence is gradually increasing in possible severe potential in the April 25-28 time frame. We're still some 10 days/240 hours out, so lots of room for things to look a lot different, but if there's a time of the year to be on the lookout, it's late April. GEFS ensemble runs hint at trough ejection from the desert Southwest. Some have it ejecting in a more classic fashion that would signal a significant severe event, while others are much flatter and more zonal. Both still pose a severe risk, however, and we have previously had significant events from zonal regimes. While it's way too early to key in on specifics - this presentation could completely disintegrate by next week - I'd certainly be keeping an eye on it if you're anywhere in the southern Plains to the Southeast. Late April is the thermodynamic sweet spot for Dixie tornado events, and if we add strong kinematics to that mix, it could spell trouble.

P.S. @WesL still having trouble uploading media after a cookie reset, any idea what might be causing it?
Click to expand...
Seconding this, latest EPS and GEFS, as well as a euro deterministic below. Pretty strong signal for two weeks out, definitely worth watching.
 
ColdFront said:
I’ve noticed the past few years the middle of April just goes completely quiet. It’s the gamblers fallacy, but it feels like since at least 2023 we have a pretty active mid-late March/very early April, and then no activity at all until the end of the April.

I realize this is just a random thought and isn’t some sort of connected pattern at all lol but talk about the April 15, 2011 outbreak in the other thread made me think about mid April outbreaks.
Click to expand...
Guess we got our answer to this one lol.
 
Still very much keeping an eye on late April. A growing number of GEFS members depict a trough ejection from southern Texas/New Mexico, but there's still plenty of spread, ranging from a robust trough to a whole lot of nothing. Consequently, it doesn't look like much at all on the operational GFS. CIPS probabilistic values (which I have attached via links, which seems to work while copy-paste capabilities are still being worked on) are rather robust anywhere from the Southern Plains all the way to the Carolinas. Despite this, would still want to see significantly more agreement on synoptic evolution before gaining much confidence in specific severe threats for the April 25-28 period. SPC hints at the beginning of a possible active period starting across parts of the Plains later next week.
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 160838
SPC AC 160838

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0338 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Severe thunderstorm potential will be low through at least Day
6/Tuesday. In the wake of a cold front moving offshore the Atlantic
coast and into the Gulf, strong surface high pressure will build
east of the Rockies and persist across parts of the South and East
through Day 6/Tuesday. As a result, a dry and stable boundary layer
will preclude severe thunderstorm potential.

By the middle of the week, and upper trough is forecast to
overspread the western U.S. As this occurs, lee surface troughing
will allow for increasing southerly winds over the Plains, and Gulf
moisture will begin to return northward Days 7-8/Wed-Thu. It remains
uncertain if the upper trough will begin to eject eastward toward
the Plains at the end of the period. If this occurs, some severe
potential may develop across the Plains, though predictability is
low.

..Leitman.. 04/16/2026
Click to expand...
PRALLC01_gefsF240.png
PRALLC01_gefsF312.png
 
In my opinion, the late April threat of severe weather is pretty much a given.
 
Given all the recent attachment issues on here, I never got around to posting my photos. Added some from Monday's tornado near Truman/Granada, MN as well as others from this month to my Flickr album:

www.flickr.com

Clouds, Storms and Cool Skies

A collection of images from my storm chasing hobby. Everything from severe thunderstorms and tornadoes to just pretty clouds, rainbows and skyscapes.
www.flickr.com www.flickr.com
 
Hmm... according to Reilly Dibble, there was some research on the optimal factors for tornado formation and they found that the best indication was a storm speed of around 20-40 mph. Not sure what everyone thinks of this result...
 
From what I am observing on the GFS and Euro (someone can correct me if I am not seeing this right), it looks like the setup for severe weather during the 4/25 - 4/28 period is non-zero, but not a traditional setup for significant severe weather at this point. Seems like more zonal flow vs. traditional trough ejection.
 
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