Severe Weather 2026

[CheeselandSkies]

Nobody mentioned it nut there's a D4 for Tuesday out currently.

An upper trough over the Great Lakes/Midwest will deepen on Tuesday,
with increasing northwesterly flow aloft overspreading portions of
the northern/central Plains to the Mid/Upper MS Valley. Rich
boundary layer moisture will be in place ahead of a
south/southeastward-developing surface front. There is some
uncertainty regarding possible early-day convection of cloud debris
across parts of the region. However, most guidance suggests a
corridor of strong instability will develop by afternoon. Supercell
wind profiles will support organized cells, possibly growing upscale
with time along the surface front. Initially, a large hail risk
could transition toward more of a damaging wind risk, particularly
if upscale growth does occur as storms develop southeast through the
evening.

Seems to me latest model runs backed off right after they introduced that. GFS/NAM mostly depict any convection that occurs as being near the NE/IA border and displaced from the best surface-based environment.

 

[Kds86z]

Sad and tragic. Apparently worst since 1913.