Severe Weather 2026

[CheeselandSkies]

Nobody mentioned it nut there's a D4 for Tuesday out currently.

An upper trough over the Great Lakes/Midwest will deepen on Tuesday,
with increasing northwesterly flow aloft overspreading portions of
the northern/central Plains to the Mid/Upper MS Valley. Rich
boundary layer moisture will be in place ahead of a
south/southeastward-developing surface front. There is some
uncertainty regarding possible early-day convection of cloud debris
across parts of the region. However, most guidance suggests a
corridor of strong instability will develop by afternoon. Supercell
wind profiles will support organized cells, possibly growing upscale
with time along the surface front. Initially, a large hail risk
could transition toward more of a damaging wind risk, particularly
if upscale growth does occur as storms develop southeast through the
evening.

Seems to me latest model runs backed off right after they introduced that. GFS/NAM mostly depict any convection that occurs as being near the NE/IA border and displaced from the best surface-based environment.

 

[Kds86z]

Sad and tragic. Apparently worst since 1913.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Kds86z]

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

Let's run over the risk today

We continue t have a relatively quiet lull of severe weather but today does have two areas of interest.

E KY: the potential for mini supercells to interact off terrain @ColdFront and use efficient low level stretching could lead to a isolated, weak tornado today in the area from 18z-21z.
Nebraska: While deep layer moisture is relatively lacking and storms may struggle with entrainment in the lowest 3km, supercells will be capable of damaging winds, large hail and a very isolated tornado. Low level dry profiles will absolutely favor more outflow dominant storms, and i think the tornado threat is very low. It's there though just in case.

Another sneaky area of interest whilst low confidence may be the MN/Canada border, low level thermos are generally questionable with 71/59, but weak SRW may lead to another area where low level stretching could make for some random weak tornado along the border. Storms are modeled in E MN today but they seem to struggle severely with moisture in question so I expect more congealed outflow behavior over there despite strongest shear. A isolated instance of large hail may happen with those storms there too. The pattern continues to be quiet in terms synoptically but mesoscale days will rule. I expect synoptically driven stuff to return soon, and i do think this fall could get interesting as we enter it eventually.