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Severe Weather 2026

slenker said:
Definitely not sleeping on the MCS stuff in this pattern, given what we saw a few days ago in Columbus and near/around Chicago. Incredibly active storm season for central Ohio standards.
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7/28/25 is a analog. Surprise tornado overperformance type day and long lived MCS all at once. I don't call derecho potential until CAMs come in and if they manage to get a good grip on such. Profiles are very similar to those of the Dixon/Bonesteel tornadoes though with very large vertical instability and somewhat low 0-1km shear but strong 0-3km SRH which can make for some interesting situations.
 
WeathermanLeprechaun said:
7/28/25 is a analog. Surprise tornado overperformance type day and long lived MCS all at once. I don't call derecho potential until CAMs come in and if they manage to get a good grip on such. Profiles are very similar to those of the Dixon/Bonesteel tornadoes though with very large vertical instability and somewhat low 0-1km shear but strong 0-3km SRH which can make for some interesting situations.
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im assuming you're talking about eastern/east-central Iowa? seems like a pretty decent environment for all hazards on tuesday
 
Uncertainty remains heavily but our main tornado threat may be switching more to portions of SE OH/N WV/W PA with latest trends. Models are struggling with destabilising but this is still associated with the MCV in question, just a bit more detached to the west. Profiles suggest potential for weak tornadoes given expansive low level stretching but weaker low level shear in this area. Models could be underestimating low level shear a bit given how it's more detached from the MCV but still needing upper level support from the system in question. This risk eventually expands into portions of the Mid Atlantic with weak tornadoes possible. That's for tomorrow.

Tuesday is continuing to shift a lot on models so a lot of uncertainty remains on how high this ceiling actually gets. Long lived MCS potential with isolated tors OR your bang average, 3-4 hour severe clusters that manage a few significant gusts here and there.
 
WeathermanLeprechaun said:
7/28/25 is a analog. Surprise tornado overperformance type day and long lived MCS all at once. I don't call derecho potential until CAMs come in and if they manage to get a good grip on such. Profiles are very similar to those of the Dixon/Bonesteel tornadoes though with very large vertical instability and somewhat low 0-1km shear but strong 0-3km SRH which can make for some interesting situations.
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Misread that at first and thought you were talking about 7/28/21. What was expected to be a derecho out of northern Wisconsin actually produced a fairly prolific (although all weak) tornado outbreak in southern Wisconsin in the middle of the night.


No. 9 "North of Verona" that went across the University Ridge Golf Course was less than 2 miles west/southwest of my apartment.
 
WeathermanLeprechaun said:
The 18z HRRR continues to support thinking of a potentially tornadic MCV (it's the same one that's driven the 5% today BTW but didn't verify due to major cloud cover.) in the Mid-Atlantic. Intense 0-1km SRW of 40 kts, with strong low level shear + stretching could lead to chaotic mini supercells eque to 6/5/24.

However, this isn't the only day of interest. Tuesday has shown up on ML guidance as a big time severe weather day for Iowa in particular. A strong jet streak of 50+ kts overlaps a highly unstable warm sector and may drive a significant damaging wind/tornado event in the area with ML guidance strongly suggesting both in the mix. Profiles already suggesting long lived MCS potential in the cards and the vertical velocity product on the GFS seems to suggests clusters with potentially a isolated supercell ahead of those clusters. But, of course, it's early days so we will not know storm mode for a bit, a mixed mode is the most prominent on models at the moment but that could switch.

When I say significant damaging wind/tornado event, i do not mean significant tornadoes. Moreso significant damaging wind but the tornado threat exists to a extent and derecho events like surprising with tornadoes a lot.
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This entire last few months has made me want to get out of Iowa ASAP, this state's weather is quickly just becoming unliveable. After we got flooded in a month ago, now we get this pile of rain that gave us 3-6" (although over a week), and now an MCS that is coming from the NW again on Tuesday that could pose another threat to crash my neighbor's tree onto my roof. Just another year...
 
GXSC said:
This entire last few months has made me want to get out of Iowa ASAP, this state's weather is quickly just becoming unliveable. After we got flooded in a month ago, now we get this pile of rain that gave us 3-6" (although over a week), and now an MCS that is coming from the NW again on Tuesday that could pose another threat to crash my neighbor's tree onto my roof. Just another year...
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Wow , sorry.
 
GXSC said:
This entire last few months has made me want to get out of Iowa ASAP, this state's weather is quickly just becoming unliveable. After we got flooded in a month ago, now we get this pile of rain that gave us 3-6" (although over a week), and now an MCS that is coming from the NW again on Tuesday that could pose another threat to crash my neighbor's tree onto my roof. Just another year...
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I've never felt anything like this humidity the last few weeks. The corn sweat really isn't messing around this year.
 
Brice W said:
Ive been done with this summer since June honestly. It’s gonna be a relief once we get back into the 60/70 degree weather in a couple months.
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Amen GIF by Centro de Vida Familiar
 
Brice W said:
Ive been done with this summer since June honestly. It’s gonna be a relief once we get back into the 60/70 degree weather in a couple months.
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It got down to around 72 around 9 PM a couple weeks ago and I thought I was going to have to put a jacket on. My body has now become acclimated to this miserable, awful, heat and humidity now.
 
In other news, I officially hit 100 today on my Tempest. My first 100 degree day this Summer. Humidity today has been in the mid 40s.
 
Nobody mentioned it nut there's a D4 for Tuesday out currently.

An upper trough over the Great Lakes/Midwest will deepen on Tuesday,
with increasing northwesterly flow aloft overspreading portions of
the northern/central Plains to the Mid/Upper MS Valley. Rich
boundary layer moisture will be in place ahead of a
south/southeastward-developing surface front. There is some
uncertainty regarding possible early-day convection of cloud debris
across parts of the region. However, most guidance suggests a
corridor of strong instability will develop by afternoon. Supercell
wind profiles will support organized cells, possibly growing upscale
with time along the surface front. Initially, a large hail risk
could transition toward more of a damaging wind risk, particularly
if upscale growth does occur as storms develop southeast through the
evening.
 
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