• Welcome to TalkWeather!
    We see you lurking around TalkWeather! Take the extra step and join us today to view attachments, see less ads and maybe even join the discussion.
    CLICK TO JOIN TALKWEATHER

Severe Weather 2026

Sharpy said:
4/30 - 5/1 may need to be monitored for severe potential in similar regions (Mid South, TN Valley, OH Valley) as 4/27 appears at this time. Not going to add it to the 4/24-28 at this time to not confuse people, but if it keeps looking the way it does on modeling as we get closer, it may warrant its own thread. Not sounding any alarms, but just a pure "heads up".

We're entering May next week, and while the spring severe weather season has been quiet for some more than others, let's plow through it and be alert!
Click to expand...
Indeed, there are signs for continued activity through the beginning of May. I think it should go in its own thread if confidence increases, it'll be part of the larger flow regime but there looks to be separate troughs or shortwaves after the 28th.
 
I love it when the media Mets tell the public to either ignore or be very cautious at what their seeing on Social Media anytime theres a legitimate threat, but there's already a couple posting graphics at 7 days out. Its a rather apparent contridiction in my view I guess. I think, (I know) there are those of us that have a better insight meteorologically into model data and pattern recongnition than some TV mets.

With that said, onto the upcoming event.....cautiously my friends.
 
Certainly interesting times ahead...

For all the talk about "2018ing," keep in mind it's still April. For the Plains and Midwest, in a lot of years (including that infamous one) by this date the season hasn't even really started yet. In Wisconsin, we've already tied or exceeded (depending on which source you consult) our average yearly tornado count on April 21! I'm on the board with a lovely tornado intercept (although it's not my earliest in a season - that goes to March 15, 2016; and March 31, 2023 for my earliest-and first-"quality" intercept!), marred somewhat by nearly wrecking my car on a backyard chase 15 miles from home the following day after successfully making it from Madison to Oklahoma City and back with a detour to Minnesota!

Here's video of the second storm I intercepted with the tour group, on Saturday, April 11 near and east of Pretty Prairie, KS:

 
18Z GEFS is suggesting another trough ejection from April 30-May 1 across the Plains into the Southeast very similar to the one being discussed for the April 26-28 period, which would support a severe threat from the Southern Plains, across the Midsouth into the Southeast. Still plenty of time for things to change, but quite an interesting synoptic look as it stands.
 
jiharris0220 said:
After what the last 3 years of activity were like, 2026 definitely has been a bit “muted” so far. So Im assuming it’s a bit difficult to get amped.
Maybe when an exceptional outbreak actually occurs, maybe this Thursday? Is when this site picks up in activity. Honestly though Im hoping for a 2018 type of “quiet”. We need it.
Click to expand...
I think this year is already on track to be more active than 2018. We've already had 4 significant tornado outbreaks compared to just one by this time in 2018, with 6 EF3 tornadoes vs two by April 22 in 2018. Now, it's still possible that May-June and November-December could totally switch off, but I think we'll probably have more events. I'm getting more of a 2006 or 2009 vibe from this season so far.
 
VultureDirge89 said:
I think this year is already on track to be more active than 2018. We've already had 4 significant tornado outbreaks compared to just one by this time in 2018, with 6 EF3 tornadoes vs two by April 22 in 2018. Now, it's still possible that May-June and November-December could totally switch off, but I think we'll probably have more events. I'm getting more of a 2006 or 2009 vibe from this season so far.
Click to expand...
Up to 420 confirmed tornadoes too.
 
The 4/30-5/1 systems does look intriguing. 12z Euro has more of a classic synoptic look even with surface low placement. Jet intersects the warm sector more orthogonally with good differential advection leading to favorable wind shear in correlation with a moderately unstable environment. Of course, its just one run and it will change a lot over the next few days. But a very nice look for Dixie.
 
IMG_4300.jpg
 
Obviously, we have to get through our April 24-28 system first, but the April 30-May 1 period will warrant very close monitoring as well. Run-to-run variability is still substantial, but the 12Z Euro is particularly robust and a lot of the overall synoptics are fairly consistent. Note that moisture will be particularly ample and will remain largely in-place after our 24-28th system moves through. I'd caution on this with the caveat that often times systems that appear quite concerning that immediately follow a previous system often end up evolving significantly differently than modelled in the mid-range. Exactly why that is, I'm not certain, but it definitely happens, though it's no guarantee. Thankfully, this system looks to sweep out moisture and severe risk in the region for a week or so.
mEfbTJC.png
uisZbgf.png
K41DzOa.png
NGQnLk8.png
 
Clancy said:
Obviously, we have to get through our April 24-28 system first, but the April 30-May 1 period will warrant very close monitoring as well. Run-to-run variability is still substantial, but the 12Z Euro is particularly robust and a lot of the overall synoptics are fairly consistent. Note that moisture will be particularly ample and will remain largely in-place after our 24-28th system moves through. I'd caution on this with the caveat that often times systems that appear quite concerning that immediately follow a previous system often end up evolving significantly differently than modelled in the mid-range. Exactly why that is, I'm not certain, but it definitely happens, though it's no guarantee. Thankfully, this system looks to sweep out moisture and severe risk in the region for a week or so.
mEfbTJC.png
uisZbgf.png
K41DzOa.png
NGQnLk8.png
Click to expand...
Agreed. This system has an elevated ceiling if the background features stay similar to current depictions.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top