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Severe Weather 2026

NorthGaWeather said:
I think a lot of people that were affected by 4/27/11 are smart enough to sniff out the hype. They trust the local mets they relied on, like Spann, NWS, etc. and will only get worked up if they sound the horn. It’s not always the case, but in my experience, those that get hysterical over a 240 hr GFS 500 mb chart are the ones that didn’t live through a major event.

I’ve ranted time and time again about the public and their interpretation of forecasts/warnings. But again, I think those that suffer from weather related PTSD/anxiety (I know as I was one of them) more often than not become some of the most knowledgable people about the subject.

On the comparing side, people will always compare an event with the last major one. Before 4/27, people even on this forum compared potential high end events to 4/3/74 or the Veteran’s Day 2002 outbreak. It’s human nature, but especially when you’re monetized on social media. This event won’t be 4/27. It will be its own unique event that will either fade into history, replace 4/27, or be somewhere in the middle. Spann said it perfectly, if the only tornado of an event comes rolling down your street, that’s your 4/27.
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That is a point but there are probably people that range concern. Like you said, if it's Spann, than uh oh but then some may fall for the fantasy charts or some of the typical bait wording. I still think it's irresponsible to just throw that type of stuff reference out there because you don't know who's scrolling through and seeing that message. Gotta be careful especially when you toss around that day
 
WeathermanLeprechaun said:
That is a point but there are probably people that range concern. Like you said, if it's Spann, than uh oh but then some may fall for the fantasy charts or some of the typical bait wording. I still think it's irresponsible to just throw that type of stuff reference out there because you don't know who's scrolling through and seeing that message. Gotta be careful especially when you toss around that day
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No, I agree that there are plenty that fall for it. These are likely the same people that can’t identify the county they live in on a map. But I digress.

I’m just of the opinion that the majority of those that have been affected by an event like 4/27, typically are more well informed moving forward. I draw this conclusion from interviews in the field and post-event.

I do understand your point though. You can only combat the hype by engaging with facts. But on social media, IMO, it’s a losing game. But I wish you the best and hopefully people listen!

Sorry, I’ve clouded this thread too much. Back to the model watching party!!!!!!!!!
 
I actually think 4/26 and maybe even 4/28 look a lot better than 4/27 on the euro/eps right now. 4/26 in particular is catching my attention, especially because the icon/uk/aigfs are more in agreement with the euro's more high-end solution, with 70kt+ impinging upon the warm sector Sunday (4/26) evening.
 
N0mz said:
I actually think 4/26 and maybe even 4/28 look a lot better than 4/27 on the euro/eps right now. 4/26 in particular is catching my attention, especially because the icon/uk/aigfs are more in agreement with the euro's more high-end solution, with 70kt+ impinging upon the warm sector Sunday (4/26) evening.
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After seeing the 00z GFS and StormNet agreeing on the 4/26 Kansas/OK robust threat, I think it’s definitely time to start watching this one pretty closely. Modeled soundings off the 12z Euro and 00z GFS are crazy 3k+ cape, 300 esrh widespread next to a weakly capped, stout dry line.
 
The SPC has outlined four areas of severe probability in their mid-range outlook, over the Southern Plains and Missouri on Days 4, 5 and 6, and across the Deep South on Day 7. They also mention severe potential continuing into Day 8. 30% probabilities were considered for D6, but uncertainty was too high. An active period is in store.
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 210859
SPC AC 210859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

...DISCUSSION...
... An active severe weather pattern is expected through much of the
forecast period ...

Broadly cyclonic midlevel flow will persist through much of the
forecast period to the south of a closed upper low over
south-central Canada. This will place much of the Southern Plains in
westerly or southwesterly mid- and upper-level flow each day. At the
same time low-level pattern will support southerly flow from the
surface up through 850 mb across the same region. The result will be
an increasingly moist airmass to the east of a north-south dryline
across western Oklahoma and Kansas, and to the south of a remnant
west-to-east frontal boundary.

Diurnal heating of this moist airmass will result in afternoon
MUCAPE values around 2000-3000 J/kg Friday and Saturday beneath
30-40 knots of vertical shear. Model guidance continues to show
several perturbations within the midlevel flow traversing the
Southern Plains on Friday into Sunday morning. The result will be
multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms. The exact location and
dimensions of these daily severe threats will likely be augmented by
the prior days' convection, but the overall pattern supports near
daily severe potential across much of the Southern Plains.

On Sunday (Day 6) a stronger, yet compact, midlevel wave is forecast
to move northeast across Oklahoma. This wave is forecast to induce
cyclogenesis across western Oklahoma, which should act to sharpen a
dryline. To the east of the dryline, strong southerly winds will
support surface dewpoints increasing into the upper 60Fs to perhaps
low 70Fs. Diurnal heating of this airmass will result in MUCAPE
values nearing 4000 J/kg across central Oklahoma. Deep-layer shear
approaching 50 knots will overspread the region during the afternoon
as the main wave approaches. Although global models are struggling
to initiate convection along the dryline, pattern recognition would
support a significant severe weather threat Sunday evening. The lack
of model convective initiation results in enough uncertainty to
preclude the introduction of 30% unconditional severe probabilities.
All severe hazards will be possible on Sunday.

The severe threat will continue into Monday/Day-7 as the midlevel
low and surface cyclone translate east into the lower Mississippi
Valley. The severe threat may continue into Tuesday/Day-8 across
portions of the Southeast US, although numerous days of preceding
convection should use up the steep lapse rate reservoir to the west
resulting in too much uncertainty to introduce unconditional severe
probabilities at this time.

..Marsh.. 04/21/2026
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Clancy said:
The SPC has outlined four areas of severe probability in their mid-range outlook, over the Southern Plains and Missouri on Days 4, 5 and 6, and across the Deep South on Day 7. They also mention severe potential continuing into Day 8. 30% probabilities were considered for D6, but uncertainty was too high. An active period is in store.
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Almost day 6 30 percent , pretty rare
 
Clancy said:
The SPC has outlined four areas of severe probability in their mid-range outlook, over the Southern Plains and Missouri on Days 4, 5 and 6, and across the Deep South on Day 7. They also mention severe potential continuing into Day 8. 30% probabilities were considered for D6, but uncertainty was too high. An active period is in store.
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Finally, a yellow contour over Alabama.

LXENn72.gif
 
Clancy said:
The SPC has outlined four areas of severe probability in their mid-range outlook, over the Southern Plains and Missouri on Days 4, 5 and 6, and across the Deep South on Day 7. They also mention severe potential continuing into Day 8. 30% probabilities were considered for D6, but uncertainty was too high. An active period is in store.
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4000 j/kg…
 
Last Day 7 risk for North MS was March 24th, 2025, but the last Day 7 risk for North MS in April was on April 24th, 2017
 
akt1985 said:
A bit off topic, but wasn’t there a severe weather event that happened on April 3, 1989, exactly 15 years to the day of the regions hit by the 1974 Superoutbreak over the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys?
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Not seeing that for 1989 in Alabama.
 
4/30 - 5/1 may need to be monitored for severe potential in similar regions (Mid South, TN Valley, OH Valley) as 4/27 appears at this time. Not going to add it to the 4/24-28 at this time to not confuse people, but if it keeps looking the way it does on modeling as we get closer, it may warrant its own thread. Not sounding any alarms, but just a pure "heads up".

We're entering May next week, and while the spring severe weather season has been quiet for some more than others, let's plow through it and be alert!
 
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