slenker
Member
Surprised it likes tomorrow so much; I suppose we'll quickly find out how that goes. Sunday and Monday both being purple despite Monday being pretty dependent on how Sunday plays out is also an interesting observation to me.
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Severe Weather 2026
- Thread starter KevinH
- Start date
Surprised it likes tomorrow so much; I suppose we'll quickly find out how that goes. Sunday and Monday both being purple despite Monday being pretty dependent on how Sunday plays out is also an interesting observation to me.
For sure, it's hard to tell whether it's taking into account the connection between Sunday and Monday. I'm also curious about whether it'll keep Monday purple, given the setup - but normally, when this model goes with purple, it keeps purple until day 1. That said, there's a first time for everything. Only time will tell, but I'm going to keep an eye on this model as it's been one of the most accurate this year so far at medium-range. We'll see if that holds.
Grand Poo Bah
Member
Certainly seems to perform better than CIPS and CSU have been at this range.
Kds86z
Member
Roger Edwards of the SPC made a fairly long but in-depth Twitter post describing the challenges associated with some of the so-called "missed events" from this year (namely the Union City, MI, and Kansas City, MO, tornadoes), and I highly recommend reading it:
(Source.)
(Source.)
That was a very good write up he did
KakashiHatake2000
Member
check out this map of course probably should be taken with a grain of salt since gfs also I read in Huntsville afd last night that April 30th or was the over the week ahead (I don’t remember) could spell a potential serious flooding threat
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Follow-up to this: As previously-mentioned, the "threat-after-the-threat to no threat at all" progression has taken place with this potential system. Most modelling has it scraping along the Gulf Coast, which could cause some limited severe weather right along the coast, but otherwise it shouldn't cause too many problems.Still plenty of time between now and then, but if this presentation keeps up, we will need to quickly refocus after our upcoming threat, because this looks like trouble for the Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley.
Seems after this event we’ll enter another mid-season lull for maybe a week or so. Some of the predicted temperatures across most of eastern CONUS look to be pretty below average. Not saying the severe weather threat everywhere is zero, but it does seem like this is a pattern switch.
akt1985
Member
Kind of strange I might need a jacket at this low latitude in early May.
Seeing a high of 55 next Saturday for southern Kentucky is enraging.
CheeselandSkies
Member
Yeah. Frost possible next weekend which will stunt our nice greenup right when it should be really taking off. This is a bit unusual, in past springs with extended periods of much-BN temperatures in my adult life (2006, 2014, 2018 stand out), they started off that way with winter storms lasting well into April in a kind of self-reinforcing pattern (the cold air sticking around kept Hudson Bay and the Great Lakes cold, which helped the cold air continue to stick around, and so on) that took until well into May or even June to break.
It's been unusual for a spring to start off mild to AN (in Wisconsin we've already exceeded our average annual tornado count before April 20, and snow is a distant memory) and then flip BN. This might be the first such occurrence in my memory.
akt1985
Member
Just in time for the Kentucky Derby.
akt1985
Member
There is a Marginal Risk Wednesday night for the central Gulf coast.
There's another Marginal for the Mid-Atlantic as well. 2% tor risk )(and 5% wind) covers all of VA and most of MD, WV, and NC.
Kds86z
Member
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
Could see a large hail/isolated tornado today in E TX