Severe Weather 2026

[Kds86z]

Day 3:

..BLACK HILLS INTO IOWA/MINNESOTA
A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT IN MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS FEATURE
WILL MOVE INTO WYOMING/MONTANA AND EVENTUALLY THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.
CONVECTION APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE HIGHER TERRAIN (BIG
HORNS/BLACK HILLS) AND MOVE INTO AN AIRMASS WITH INCREASINGLY RICH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE EAST. CONVECTION SHOULD BE ABLE TO
ORGANIZE ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WITH AROUND 40 KT OF EFFECTIVE
SHEAR PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY ITSELF. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS ALSO
POSSIBLE ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT AS LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
INCREASES. THOUGH THERE IS SOME VARIABILITY IN WHERE ANY EVENTUAL
MCS WILL PROPAGATE, THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE A 15%
SEVERE PROBABILITY AREA THAT ENCOMPASSES THE ENVELOPE OF POTENTIAL
TRACKS. THE ENVIRONMENT WOULD SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT HAIL WITH
SUPERCELLS AND SIGNIFICANT WINDS WITH AN ORGANIZED MCS.

 

[Kds86z]

I missed this upgrade, now 5% tornado probs.

WI AND POSE A SEVERE RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS. OR, IT COULD
WEAKEN AND ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS COULD DEVELOP NEAR THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY ACROSS WI/NORTHERN MI DURING THE DAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN
MN. THIS ACTIVITY COULD INITIALLY BE SUPERCELLS, WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING ALL-HAZARDS SEVERE RISK. HOWEVER, STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO QUICKLY GROW UPSCALE INTO A BOWING MCS, MOVING EAST/NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS ACROSS WI/MI.




@CheeselandSkies