Severe Weather 2026

[Kds86z]

Climo update:

Looks like June 2026 is going to go past 261 tornadoes in June 2023. Before that is June 2014 with 283 tornadoes and then 2010 with 325.

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

Storm net thinks there's a 40% chance this Minnesota supercell drops a tornado. Not the typical use case of the product, but a unique situation.

 

[Kds86z]

Can someone translate?

 

[ThatGuy;P]

Can someone translate?

I think he’s saying that there’s only been a handful of years where the most ef3+ tornadoes in one day is 3 or less for that year.

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

StormNet has trended up significantly from 20% to 40% tor probs tonight and right over Grand Rapids Minnesota.

Looks like a pretty impressive negatively tilted trough is coming together currently, and strong 300 mb winds are creeping over the area too, and there's a very strong LLJ already in place, which is creating some really strong lift. There's already 6000 SB Caper over Southern Minnesota. Latest HRRR runs are showing far more isolated convection than it was a few hours ago. We'll see if the uptrended synoptics can overcome the strong EML in place.

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

SPC upgraded to a small 10% hatched.

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

Cell near Bismarck, ND has been getting cute with tightening and strengthening rotation in the last multiple scans

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

SPC upgraded to a small 10% hatched.

You're aware there's a thread haha for this day

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

You're aware there's a thread haha for this day

Obviously not. Did anybody post a link in here?

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

JFC we've got a 10 day long severe weather thread going? What are we even doing at this point.

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

I disagree with it too. But that's up to the mods.

JFC we've got a 10 day long severe weather thread going? What are we even doing at this point.

 

[MichelleH]

I disagree with it too. But that's up to the mods.

Don't look at me, it wasn't my idea.

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

Don't look at me, it wasn't my idea.

I would never throw shade at you haha, you're totally fine.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

0Z HRRR and 3K NAM both get supercells going in southern MN for Wednesday evening. However, they seem to be displaced west of the low-level jet axis until after upscale growth occurs.

 

[Kds86z]

0Z HRRR and 3K NAM both get supercells going in southern MN for Wednesday evening. However, they seem to be displaced west of the low-level jet axis until after upscale growth occurs.

One last chase for ya @CheeselandSkies ?

 

[CheeselandSkies]

One last chase for ya @CheeselandSkies ?

We shall see. I have to work and as usual it's looking like things will set up at about the maximum distance I can/am willing to do on a work day/night - about 4 hours away, so it'll have to look pretty good.

 

[Kds86z]

We shall see. I have to work and as usual it's looking like things will set up at about the maximum distance I can/am willing to do on a work day/night - about 4 hours away, so it'll have to look pretty good.

Oh nice. Did you bag any tornadoes this season?

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Oh nice. Did you bag any tornadoes this season?

Just a glimpse of the (officially uncounted) skinny rope near West Liberty, IA on April 2 (my chase partner got a photo as I was driving, chasers who were closer got video of a ground circulation with it but it's not on the NWS' survey list, the tornado near Downey that they list was further west and about 5 minutes earlier)

...and the EF1 near Truman, MN on April 13 after hauling all the way from starting the day in Wichita after my tour ended in OKC the previous evening.

EF1 Tornado near Truman, MN 4/13/2026 1 by Andy, on Flickr

 

[CheeselandSkies]

I get that there's more to severe convective weather than tornadoes alone, but it's still a little strange to see an Enhanced risk for an area that has a "less than 2%" tornado probability. Western Kansas upgraded at 13Z for 30%+CIG1 wind.

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

I get that there's more to severe convective weather than tornadoes alone, but it's still a little strange to see an Enhanced risk for an area that has a "less than 2%" tornado probability. Western Kansas upgraded at 13Z for 30%+CIG1 wind.

View attachment 54001View attachment 54002View attachment 54003

A friend of mine from SW KS may be chasing that today since he's in that 30% CIG1 for wind