RFD66
Member
This makes things a tad more interesting for Tuesday possible
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Severe Weather 2025
- Thread starter KevinH
- Start date
RFD66
Member
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
Not personally on board with Tuesday being much atp, this tool is more wrong then right on low end days. Seems more like a messy mode would be set to take place with no chance of anything ahead of the line (Special thanks to Trey for helping me learn how to detect prefrontal events/confluence bands!)
Kds86z
Member
SPC has expanded the Marginal Risk area for Tuesday. Seems like on of those days where one particular spot gets just the right overlap of ingredients for a couple hours, and everyone else gets a soaking rain. Isolated storms may get going during the afternoon, but kinematics will be decreasing with time. Fairly bog-standard cold season, conditional severe threat.
AJS
Member
Slight risk has also been expanded for tomorrow. Might be able to get a decent chase in tomorrow!
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
My potentially final thoughts on tmrw:
I know I have been absurdly inconsistent with a opinion on this setup, and i probably shouldn't even be trying to make a "final thoughts" because this is still conditional but
I'm not sure if i have enough confidence in confluence bands doing much tmrw near the stronger shear. Low level lapse rates are VERY poor and plus storms are elevated. I'm not even sure if i would keep that 5% in NE/E TX, seems like things mightve actually trended a bit further east where there is a lesser chance of confluence band action and just QLCS tornadoes thru the night. I was watching for a sneaky confluence band in W MS but seems CAMs quickly backed off that 4am solution which could've been conditionally interesting. My personal outlook is a large 5% in Northern-going into Central Louisiana and surrounding is a large 2%. I know i may switch up again in the morning etc but I am certainly becoming less confident in TX doing much tomorrow. Trust the SPC regardless, just my personal opinion and could be a bit out there admittedly haha
I know I have been absurdly inconsistent with a opinion on this setup, and i probably shouldn't even be trying to make a "final thoughts" because this is still conditional but
I'm not sure if i have enough confidence in confluence bands doing much tmrw near the stronger shear. Low level lapse rates are VERY poor and plus storms are elevated. I'm not even sure if i would keep that 5% in NE/E TX, seems like things mightve actually trended a bit further east where there is a lesser chance of confluence band action and just QLCS tornadoes thru the night. I was watching for a sneaky confluence band in W MS but seems CAMs quickly backed off that 4am solution which could've been conditionally interesting. My personal outlook is a large 5% in Northern-going into Central Louisiana and surrounding is a large 2%. I know i may switch up again in the morning etc but I am certainly becoming less confident in TX doing much tomorrow. Trust the SPC regardless, just my personal opinion and could be a bit out there admittedly haha
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
The confluence band action down south has less kinematics near Houston but may pose a conditional tornado or two. This may be the best tornado threat in the Texas vicinity so I would definitely go for it rather then risking what may become a very poor and messy setup in NE TX.
Kds86z
Member
Well, that's very supportive for severe weather/tornado threats
Yep, I think we have atleast 2-3 shots at severe weather coming down the pipeline. I know one things for sure, we are bound for a good gully washer! I'll enjoy these warm temperatures while they last before it gets bitterly cold in January and February
Kds86z
Member
Lol
- Thread starter
- #7,613
KevinH
Member
Kds86z
Member
- Moderator
- #7,616
...Synopsis...
A weak mid-level shortwave trough across the Tennessee Valley will
dampen through the period as it advances into the western Atlantic
after 00Z. A trough across the northern Plains will amplify through
the period as it advances into the Upper Midwest and develops a
closed upper low. A surface low will develop near Wisconsin/Lake
Michigan and deepen through the day and into Tuesday night. As it
deepens, a surface cold front will sharpen and accelerate east from
the Great Lakes to the Lower Mississippi Valley.
...Deep South...
A strong low-level jet will extend from northern MS/AL to southern
Ohio Tuesday morning and will quickly move northeast through the
day. This will result in weaker, more veered flow across the warm
sector during the afternoon. Rising heights in the wake of the
morning mid-level shortwave trough and weak convergence along the
front may mitigate severe storm potential during much of the day,
despite weak to moderate instability and moderate shear across much
of the uncapped warm sector. However, scattered storms, some which
could be strong, are expected along and ahead of the frontal zone
during the afternoon and early evening. Damaging wind gusts will be
the primary threat, but some isolated large hail may also occur
across portions of MS/AL where greater instability is forecast.
Overall, stronger forcing amid falling heights aloft and greater
convergence along the cold front, is anticipated Tuesday night.
However, weaker instability should mitigate the overall severe
weather threat. A few stronger storms are possible after 06Z across
the FL Panhandle into southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia where
upper 60s dewpoints off the Gulf should be sufficient for moderate
instability, even during the early morning hours. However, even if a
few supercells can form during this period, severe potential may be
somewhat limited given only modest mid-level lapse rates and weak
low-level flow.
"May" and "should" don't mean anything in Alabama in November. I'm not turning my back on it.
Ozonelayer
Member
Could today be worthy of a thread? Several strong tornadoes are absoutely possible given the environment and storm mode doesn't seem to be unfavorable either.
CheeselandSkies
Member
Eh...when even Broyles seems tepid on the tornado threat (ref. today's 13Z SWODY1) I don't think there's much there.
- Thread starter
- #7,619
KevinH
Member
I dont think so, not for today? @MichelleH posted the D2 for tomorrow. THAT might warrant a thread…
Update: I just saw the D1 has a slight risk, which typically results in some watch being issued for that area at some point. I have not read today’s D1, but today COULD warrant a thread depending on what they are saying.
- Thread starter
- #7,620
KevinH
Member
Speaking of D1, I am not sure if this warrants a thread or not.
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0636 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025
Valid 241300Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EAST
TEXAS...LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI....
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from mid-afternoon into the overnight hours from east Texas into central/southern Mississippi.
...TX/LA/MS...
A large upper trough is moving eastward across the southern Plains this morning, with an associated 60-70 knot mid level jet expected to track into AR by evening. At the surface, a warm front currently extends from southeast TX to just off the LA coast. This boundary will lift northward through the day, with a moist and moderately unstable air mass spreading inland. A combination of diurnal destabilization and the approaching upper trough will lead to convective intensification by early afternoon over east TX. These initial storms will pose a risk of large hail and perhaps some gusty winds and a tornado or two.
As the activity spreads eastward after dark, rather strong low-level shear profiles in vicinity of the warm front will maintain a risk of severe storms through much of the night across central LA and southern MS. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible.
..Hart/Broyles.. 11/24/2025