CheeselandSkies
Member
The GFS has been pretty consistent with a broad and highly amplified western trough around the end of the month. 06Z run has pretty impressive hodographs over the southern Plains for next Saturday the 29th. Surface moisture is solid for the time of year (mid 50s with decent depth), but it looks like we'd need to see the surface temperatures be a bit warmer (vs. the generally upper 50s to around 60 depicted on soundings) and/or cooler air aloft push out over the warm sector, to realize sufficient instability.
Tendency is for a positively tilted ejection into the MS Valley (A NE-SW orientation to both the upper-level trough axis and the surface cold front) the following day, however there is a pretty fast jet streak in there (85 kts at 500mb over Iowa). There is also a hint of a possible neutral to slightly negatively tilted shortwave ejecting through the broad SW flow (circled in green).
Next thing to watch, anyway...
However, that same GFS run also seems to want to develop a hurricane in the Gulf a couple of days later, so hard to trust how it handles the trough evolution at that point.
Tendency is for a positively tilted ejection into the MS Valley (A NE-SW orientation to both the upper-level trough axis and the surface cold front) the following day, however there is a pretty fast jet streak in there (85 kts at 500mb over Iowa). There is also a hint of a possible neutral to slightly negatively tilted shortwave ejecting through the broad SW flow (circled in green).
Next thing to watch, anyway...
However, that same GFS run also seems to want to develop a hurricane in the Gulf a couple of days later, so hard to trust how it handles the trough evolution at that point.
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