Severe Weather 2025

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

Latest thoughts on Monday seem to continue the uncertainty about surface based storms + storm mode. Kinematics aren't bad and are pretty much at the sweet spot for tornadoes. Conditionally a couple tornadoes are possible and models aren't stirring up or down with this. Going into Tuesday, convection should reinvorginate for the Dixie tornado threat. Threat should range for S MS to the northern portion of the state so @JPWX make sure your tornado magnet isn't on!

Jokes aside, the threat up north could be interesting, some sort of 700 mb inversion exists in the thermodynamic profiles. This could clear out messier updrafts and perhaps create a more cleaner storm mode with potential of a couple tornadoes up north. The threat slowly lingers off thru 21z-00z with a tornado or two remaining conditionally possible in Central MS. A sneaky 2nd round MAY be possible in SE MS around 03z, but that threat would still be mainly low end, tornado or two.

Surface based storms should be likely in Mississippi on Tuesday, potentially messier storm mode down south leaves questions. Personally, i wouldn't rule out a large 5% contour perhaps being possible on Tuesday if models remain, it may be your "run of the mill" threat but we've seen what Dixie can do in these situations...

TLDR: Maybe a few tornadoes possible in Eastern TX on Monday then Dixie is back.

First sounding is taken from Eastern TX on Monday. Second is N MS on Tuesday!

 

[JPWX]

And worse, it does look like a nocturnal tornado threat too

 

[Kds86z]

And worse, it does look like a nocturnal tornado threat too

 

[Clancy]

Confidence building on GEFS for at least a marginally-favorable environment for severe storms.

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to isolated severe storms are possible across portions
of the Southeast on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will amplify across the eastern CONUS on Tuesday
with ridging across the West. A cold front will sharpen near the
Mississippi River and cross the Appalachians by the end of the
period.

...Southeast...
Mid 60s dewpoints will stream northward ahead of a cold front across
the Southeast on Tuesday. This will result in moderate
destabilization within a zone of moderate to strong deep-layer
shear. Minimal inhibition is expected along the front by
mid-afternoon which should support isolated to scattered storm
development. A strong low-level jet, initially across MS/TN/AL
during the morning, will move quickly east and is forecast over the
Mid-Atlantic by 00Z. If this occurs, low-level shear will not be
that strong along the frontal zone Tuesday afternoon/evening.
Therefore, isolated large hail will likely be the primary severe
weather threat. Storm intensity is expected to lessen by late
evening due to the cooling boundary layer ahead of the cold front.

...South Texas...
The southwestern edge of the surface cold front will stall across
South Texas Tuesday afternoon/evening. The environment south of this
front will feature moderate instability and shear. Upper forcing may
be somewhat nebulous, but convergence along the front may be
sufficient for isolated to widely scattered storms late Tuesday
afternoon into the evening. If storms develop, large hail will
likely be the primary threat.

..Bentley.. 11/23/2025

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

Surprised at the mention of strong tornadoes in the D2 outlook. Just don't really see it but SPC knows best, I think storm mode is still in question plus if storms can get surface based. Soundings reveal decently strong low level shear, but i see two things that limit the threat here.

Poor upper level lapse rates, may lead to storms struggling, and plus the clear surface inversion. Tomorrow doesn't look as certain to me unlike the SPC but I would absolutely trust them further on this threat. Just my personal opinion. Mid level LRs may get better thru the night but I would still be hesitant to call on a strong tornado threat here.


A quick note on Tuesday is that it has downtrended somewhat quite a bit. Kinematically not as impressive and convection moving thru in the morning may stump airmass recovery completely. Good to see. Our main focus now is the E TX/W LA event with a strong tornado or two possible, according to the SPC.

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

Also watching a interesting return on the GFS for the 30th. Not gonna give details of course but will continue to see if consistency remains with the signal.

 

[AJS]

Surprised at the mention of strong tornadoes in the D2 outlook. Just don't really see it but SPC knows best, I think storm mode is still in question plus if storms can get surface based. Soundings reveal decently strong low level shear, but i see two things that limit the threat here.

Poor upper level lapse rates, may lead to storms struggling, and plus the clear surface inversion. Tomorrow doesn't look as certain to me unlike the SPC but I would absolutely trust them further on this threat. Just my personal opinion. Mid level LRs may get better thru the night but I would still be hesitant to call on a strong tornado threat here.


A quick note on Tuesday is that it has downtrended somewhat quite a bit. Kinematically not as impressive and convection moving thru in the morning may stump airmass recovery completely. Good to see. Our main focus now is the E TX/W LA event with a strong tornado or two possible, according to the SPC.

Oh wow, I didn’t expect strong tornadoes to be mentioned. Think we’ll see an upgrade to an enhanced?

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

Oh wow, I didn’t expect strong tornadoes to be mentioned. Think we’ll see an upgrade to an enhanced?

If we go by their thinking, it's definitely a chance but rather low. Bentley is a brilliant forecaster and I respect him a lot so of course i have trust that he has it right here, i just personally don't really see it. Days like these would probably be 5#, and when they get introduced, it should definitely prevent a lot of slack they get for doing 10# on some setups and verify events better I feel. Personally, the parameter space is probably a bit too small to go on and do a 10 unhatched or 10 hatched. We will see.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

If we go by their thinking, it's definitely a chance but rather low. Bentley is a brilliant forecaster and I respect him a lot so of course i have trust that he has it right here, i just personally don't really see it. Days like these would probably be 5#, and when they get introduced, it should definitely prevent a lot of slack they get for doing 10# on some setups and verify events better I feel. Personally, the parameter space is probably a bit too small to go on and do a 10 unhatched or 10 hatched. We will see.

Seems to amaze me the pople
Argue and go against the SPC. They know more than us . lol . Ok to maybe have some difference with them , but agree the environment can hold a strong tornado threat se Texas perhaps parts Louisiana , no one mentioned a outbreak

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

Seems to amaze me the pople
Argue and go against the SPC. They know more than us . lol . Ok to maybe have some difference with them , but agree the environment can hold a strong tornado threat se Texas perhaps parts Louisiana , no one mentioned a outbreak

Yeah, i admittedly did it on 4/2 and practically went against them, but i got a huge reality check and since then, I've decided just t stay grounded when forecasting because i never want to downplay a high end day like that again. Once again, we will see, I'm just not on board atm, should very well change my opinion later. If we didn't have the SPC, what would happen? People don't realise how lucky we are to have a whole large group of forecasters, coordinators leading and giving accurate lead time to tornado threats, derechos etc

 

[UncleJuJu98]

With this pattern coming i think Alabama's gunna see multiple shots at some kind of severe weather, too early for magnitude specifics

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

12z HRRR displays quite the shear profiles that would be normally capable of significant tornadoes, but your storm mode and significantly lacking thermos definitely shoots the foot in. Regardless, a few tornadoes would easily be possible if storms can break through the stable layer tomorrow in NE TX around 21z-00z.

 

[KevinH]

With this pattern coming i think Alabama's gunna see multiple shots at some kind of severe weather, too early for magnitude specifics

Right….

SHOCKER lol

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

Commented on Trey's Enderlin post about tomorrow, and he said it looks pretty favorable, like a beans ahead of the line day in East TX. More meets the eye here then i thought.... If prefrontals do come to fruition tomorrow, then significant tornado potential may be realized.

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

Yeah, i admittedly did it on 4/2 and practically went against them, but i got a huge reality check and since then, I've decided just t stay grounded when forecasting because i never want to downplay a high end day like that again. Once again, we will see, I'm just not on board atm, should very well change my opinion later. If we didn't have the SPC, what would happen? People don't realise how lucky we are to have a whole large group of forecasters, coordinators leading and giving accurate lead time to tornado threats, derechos etc

And I have changed my opinion. After some further look, it does seem like a prefrontal significant tornado risk is possible tmrw. Even though these prefrontals may be elevated, any mesoscale boost would help them become surface based and drop a significant tornado from there. Could see a 10# tomorrow depending on confidence but wind profiles are very impressive and if we get enough recovery for adequate instability, the threat may work out. I have concerns over storm sustainability, but we will see. Some subtle forcing mechanisms will aid in prefrontal development tmrw, and any embedded supercell may pose a conditional strong tornado risk too.

 

[JPWX]

I trust SPC, NWS Jackson, NWS Birmingham, Huntsville, Little Rock, and Mobile more than I do MEG when it comes to severe weather.

 

[Clancy]

CSU's probs for Tuesday. Centers tornado risk over North Georgia, weirdly enough, with a small 5% contour over the Atlanta metro. Marginal-level risks for wind and hail. Definitely strikes me as a conditional situation that could still produce at least a few tornadogenic storms. Seems like instability will actually be there across an appreciable area - confidence on that has been trending up.

 

[Kds86z]

The latest

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Ag

I trust SPC, NWS Jackson, NWS Birmingham, Huntsville, Little Rock, and Mobile more than I do MEG when it comes to severe weather.

Agree. MEG is to wishy washy most time with severe events

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

CSU's probs for Tuesday. Centers tornado risk over North Georgia, weirdly enough, with a small 5% contour over the Atlanta metro. Marginal-level risks for wind and hail. Definitely strikes me as a conditional situation that could still produce at least a few tornadogenic storms. Seems like instability will actually be there across an appreciable area - confidence on that has been trending up.
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Probably based off the stronger low level shear up there. There is rather limited instability though so it's definitely shear-biased somewhat in this case.