akt1985
Member
Watching some of the NFL games today, gradient winds are quite strong behind the system that came through the Northeast yesterday.
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Severe Weather 2025
- Thread starter KevinH
- Start date
Kds86z
Member
Yeah gusts up to 40 here in Pa
Central Ohio Wx
Member
Holy Cloudflare errors! Wasn't working from last night to this morning.
Grand Poo Bah
Member
CIPS is picking up on the severe weather threat for Thursday.
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
Interesting signals from the HRRR regarding tomorrow.
Surface inversion could limit storms being surface based but aside from that, i can see storm initiation here. It is notable that morning convection does to thru the area but it's a rather robust return for a day that I'm not sure was on many people's eyes before today. We will see. Intrigued if the MO/IL/KY border can do something with this environment tmrw
Surface inversion could limit storms being surface based but aside from that, i can see storm initiation here. It is notable that morning convection does to thru the area but it's a rather robust return for a day that I'm not sure was on many people's eyes before today. We will see. Intrigued if the MO/IL/KY border can do something with this environment tmrw
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WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
Quick note that this version of CIPS actually isn't recommended for use and instead it's the one with "percentage of analogs" and a decently detailed space for parameters and analogs. It's oddly hard to find on Google though. I will share the link when I find it.
joshoctober16
Member
honestly looks pretty severe if no change happens.
events to watch for are events that have a parameter of..
BRN =10 to 45
DBRN = 0.16 to 0.6 (parameter i made , similar to BRN but replace the BWD6 with DCAPE)
LOW + MID RH = 65 to 89
CVTP = 1.813+ (parameter i made , corrected version of VTP)
tend to be the most dangerous events for Type 1 Tornado outbreaks , and this seems to be one of them.
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
It's all dependant on the warm front. But there is dangerous kinematics at play, even though BRN suggests the possibility of shear dominating the event meaning storms may not sustain well in the hotspot for storms.
That being said, i do think a very low end, conditional strong tornado is possible with any sustained supercell that could warrant a mesoscale interaction, perhaps even with the warm front. The kinematics and thermodynamics should barely be enough to carry the threat over.
Grand Poo Bah
Member
You change the super outbreak parameter to something more useful like MCS or squal line likelihood. Even though it seems psuedo-sciencey it's still fun seeing your concepts evolve over time! Good work!
Grand Poo Bah
Member
CIPS is still bullish on a threat for Thursday, and now Friday as well.
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
Latest outlook mentions a potential upgrade at 20z if confidence in surface based storms close to the low/warm front appear apparent. Sneaky day incoming.
Central Ohio Wx
Member
SLGT or 5#? If the 5# officially existed, this would be the day to use it in that same corridor that was impacted by the Blodgett-London cell on May 16.
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
SLGT. Unrelated, but the 5# is being introduced sometime next year. Would absolutely be helpful on days like these.
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
Interesting CU field in Missouri. I honestly feel like a big outlier regarding a strong tornado today, but I can't pass by strong kinematics upwards of 250+ with a discrete mode and warm front without considering it. Sure, the chances are low that we actually see one but it really isn't out of the question today for me personally. As the stable layer fills in, it will be gradually harder to produce tornadoes but any cell that can drill through the stable layer may produce tornadoes.
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CheeselandSkies
Member
Couple of tasty-looking (from the perspective of a guy who hasn't chased since July 16th, and before that, May 19th) discrete cells southeast of Lincoln, IL, both severe-warned.
Surface conditions are approximately 51/47. That seems too stable for a tornado threat, but after what happened in southern WI on February 8, 2024 I can't rule anything out.
Surface conditions are approximately 51/47. That seems too stable for a tornado threat, but after what happened in southern WI on February 8, 2024 I can't rule anything out.
RadarOmega really needs to work on their 3D Volumetric Radar application. Every time I open it, its slow to zoom in and freezes up.
joshoctober16
Member
kind of strange.
20 minutes ago from one of our chasers in Hickman 
CheeselandSkies
Member
The setup for tomorrow/Friday has kind of fizzled with the main trough hanging way back to the west, and a general lack of instability.
GFS has been teasing another potential threat for around next Tuesday the 25th, note how on the 06Z run a compact trough swings through, starts out positively tilted but becomes more neutrally tilted with time, and some adequate instability depicted over at least the southern portions of MS/AL. Although it seems like we have seen a number of these show up and then downtrend with time over the last two weeks or so, so I'm skeptical for now.
GFS has been teasing another potential threat for around next Tuesday the 25th, note how on the 06Z run a compact trough swings through, starts out positively tilted but becomes more neutrally tilted with time, and some adequate instability depicted over at least the southern portions of MS/AL. Although it seems like we have seen a number of these show up and then downtrend with time over the last two weeks or so, so I'm skeptical for now.