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Current Tropical Systems Melissa
Severe Weather 2025
- Thread starter KevinH
- Start date
Kds86z
Member
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
Kds86z
Member
My area .
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
More specifically towards the Washington DC vicinity. A few tornadoes remain possible thru the 15z-18z period. Wouldn't be TOO surprised if SPC go 5% but not surprised if they don't
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
The conditional few tornadoes risk appears to have trended the good way. Morning convection is currently zapping up instability in the vicinity which was the best scenario. Admittedly we're rather lucky that instability was zapped. These shear profiles are rather impressive. If we got up to around 800-1k MLCAPE, very easily a strong tornado or two would've been possible.
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Kds86z
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Looking at latest forecast model runs (18z GFS, 12z Euro, and 12z Canadian), it looks like we might get back into the severe weather potential by late next week into next weekend.
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
In agreement that the pattern may be busy. Strong low level shear meeting with instability a few times on some of those runs, but we will see if the trends continuous
I'm thinking about getting the RadarOmega Radar Sweep add on
akt1985
Member
Is Sunday 11/9 looking stormy for the Deep South? I’m returning from Florida that day.
- Thread starter
- #7,433
Agree with @JPWX. GFS shows a storm system for late next week into the weekend, but nothing that immediately appears overly-impressive. Likewise, ensembles show some possible disturbances moving through during that time frame, but it's not particularly eye-popping. This time of year, setups seem to be either immediately obvious due to kinematic profiles well into the medium range or rather hard to sniff out until a few days before.
With how active the troughing has been over the east in the past two weeks, the moisture return for these upcoming systems is going to be rather unimpressive I imagine. Parts of the Gulf of Mexico's coastline aren't even managing dews in the 40s right now. It isn't the dead of winter yet, though, so I'm guessing it isn't going to be as challenging for said dewpoints to return to normal given enough time to do so.
Kds86z
Member
- Moderator
- #7,437
...Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8...
On Saturday, a large-scale mid-level trough is forecast to quickly
take shape over the central U.S. Ahead of the trough, low-level
moisture is forecast to return northward into the Ark-La-Tex and mid
Mississippi Valley, where thunderstorms will be possible Saturday
afternoon. Convective coverage is forecast to expand southeastward
into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley Saturday night. Model forecasts
suggest that moderate instability and strong deep-layer shear will
be in place, which would support a severe threat from Saturday
afternoon and evening. Concerning the potential for a severe weather
event, uncertainty is substantial. Some solutions suggest that the
favorable environment for severe will remain spatially focused into
a small area, and that a front could undercut the convection. For
this reason, will keep the forecast at "predictability too low".
On Sunday, the system is forecast to move eastward across the lower
to mid Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the trough, an isolated severe
threat will be possible across parts of the Southeast and southern
Atlantic Seaboard. However, uncertainty concerning the potential for
severe storms is considerable at this range.
On Saturday, a large-scale mid-level trough is forecast to quickly
take shape over the central U.S. Ahead of the trough, low-level
moisture is forecast to return northward into the Ark-La-Tex and mid
Mississippi Valley, where thunderstorms will be possible Saturday
afternoon. Convective coverage is forecast to expand southeastward
into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley Saturday night. Model forecasts
suggest that moderate instability and strong deep-layer shear will
be in place, which would support a severe threat from Saturday
afternoon and evening. Concerning the potential for a severe weather
event, uncertainty is substantial. Some solutions suggest that the
favorable environment for severe will remain spatially focused into
a small area, and that a front could undercut the convection. For
this reason, will keep the forecast at "predictability too low".
On Sunday, the system is forecast to move eastward across the lower
to mid Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the trough, an isolated severe
threat will be possible across parts of the Southeast and southern
Atlantic Seaboard. However, uncertainty concerning the potential for
severe storms is considerable at this range.