Severe Weather 2025

[tennessee storm chaser]

They don't seem impressed with my neck of the woods. Which is fine with me since November will be here soon enough.

...Sunday/Day 5 and Monday/Day 6...
The mid-level trough is forecast to move through the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys on Sunday, and to the Atlantic Seaboard on Monday.
Ahead of the trough, scattered thunderstorms with an isolated severe
threat will be possible Sunday and Sunday night, with much of the
convection moving offshore into the Atlantic relatively early on
Monday. An isolated severe threat would still be possible closer to
the mid-level low in parts of the Mid-Atlantic Monday afternoon.

Really not sure what think bout this threat , it’s the first threat of the fall season.. ingot
Knock the rust off for it being quiet period all summer . But think we are mainly got watch for damaging wind threat vs the tornado .Just hope the storms don’t knock out my power during the Vols bama game Saturday night . Lol

 

[MichelleH]

Off topic again but giving an update -

Our mail usually doesn't run until well past dark. Last night when my son got home, he poked his head into my room and said, "Guess what?" "What?" "Your book came."

Which was followed by my squealing and running into the kitchen to follow him as he opened it for me. The outside cover has wear and a little bit of staining, but I don't care. The inside text is perfect - no stains, no marks, no highlighting, just perfect. And I still can't believe I finally own my "holy grail" after all these years.

 

[klouzek7079]

With the risk area moving slightly more east I'm still hoping that central MO will still get some spicy storms on Saturday, it's been a while since we've had a good storm with decent lightning and wind. Excited for the rain as well.

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

Yo, am I crazy or are the short term models showing a pretty gnarly tornado threat tomorrow afternoon/evening in New Mexico and Colorado?

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The Nam

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The RAP
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Seems like my comment a few days ago about today paid off! Stuff definitely a bit better to support tornadoes, but still a few limiting factors to a couple/several. Probably one or two at the least

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Kds86z]

 

[N0mz]

The risk on the 18th is trending towards being pretty low-end

 

[slenker]

18z GFS just rolled in. As far as Saturday goes this doesn't look like a good severe setup. Sunday may be better but the timing isn't the best for when the trough fully matures, seems like it's got a great negative tilt to it at one point though (it would be 7AM EST by the time this happens). If the warm sector becomes more expansive to the northeast and this general shape holds, I wouldn't be surprised to see a low end threat added for Sunday. I'm not sure if storm mode will cooperate either though.

Euro continues to show a weirdly sheared-out looking trough. Honestly I trust the Euro much more than the GFS because it isn't flip-flopping nearly as hard, but I thought this run was interesting enough to bring up. We aren't that far out anymore.

 

[ColdFront]

The risk on the 18th is trending towards being pretty low-end

It’s the very definition of the gambler’s fallacy, but the past three “second” severe weather seasons didn’t seem to have any appreciable activity until December. Last year was super quiet until late December.

 

[JPWX]

Well, I see we are now at number 3 on the Here's How It Will Go List leading up to the severe weather threat

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

Is it safe to say the Nam is looking pretty bullish for Saturday? Sounding from Northwest AR

 

[MMWX]

Trying to get back into posting more here.

Currently not expecting much this weekend. Looks like it'll be a sloppy setup, certainly not an event to chase. I think Ark-La-Tex has the highest ceiling for tornadoes Saturday night, but the trough isn't at it's highest intensity until Sunday morning (on the latest GFS run). Early NAM runs are more bullish on an overnight tornado threat than the GFS is, but I'll check the NAM again tomorrow morning.

It'll bring some good rain here, and we really need it in NE Mississippi. Pretty much the entire north part of the state has been under drought conditions for a while.

Unrelated, but the Pivotal Weather Beta sucks. Maybe I just need to get used to it.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

The risk on the 18th is trending towards being pretty low-end

I’ve seen improvement- the GFS has markedly changed towards the EURO and UK that have shown a greater risk. Looks like the same song and dance for MO into AR that we’ve seen so many times this year.