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Severe Weather 2025

More scattered strong-to-severe storms expected in the Southeast today. The main focus of activity will originate from storms currently making their way across NE MS and NW AL. Hail, damaging winds, frequent lightning and heavy rain are possible in a probable MCS that will organize later today. SPC has considered a Slight Risk across the Southern states, but how much we will destabilize behind this morning's messy rains remains an unanswered question. However, CAPE is already reaching 2000 j/kg in parts of MS, and some clearing is occurring in AL.
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Clancy said:
More scattered strong-to-severe storms expected in the Southeast today. The main focus of activity will originate from storms currently making their way across NE MS and NW AL. Hail, damaging winds, frequent lightning and heavy rain are possible in a probable MCS that will organize later today. SPC has considered a Slight Risk across the Southern states, but how much we will destabilize behind this morning's messy rains remains an unanswered question. However, CAPE is already reaching 2000 j/kg in parts of MS, and some clearing is occurring in AL.
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I don’t like this Clancy LOL, it feels like Summer severe weather season already. I want my big time Spring synoptic driven systems or some plains days!

Not ready for MCS season
 
ColdFront said:
I don’t like this Clancy LOL, it feels like Summer severe weather season already. I want my big time Spring synoptic driven systems or some plains days!

Not ready for MCS season
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Not a fan of summer MCS's, they can just be so fickle!
 
I'll say that Weather Channel graphic in the video talking about the Omega Block is definitely one for the imagination.
 

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AJS said:
Id take spring set ups here in Houston over the summer severe season anyday of the week. It’s actually unbearable here.
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Atlanta's bad, but I've heard Houston is just a whole different beast. Not jealous.



Additionally, SPC monitoring for activity over Alabama. SVA not anticipated at this time, but if destabilization increases, then it may be more closely considered.
Mesoscale Discussion 0666
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025

Areas affected...portions of eastern Mississippi into Alabama and
southern Middle Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 031734Z - 032000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat should gradually increase into the
afternoon hours. At least isolated instances of strong/damaging
gusts or large hail are possible with the stronger, sustained
storms.

DISCUSSION...MRMS mosaic radar imagery depicts deepening convection
along the MS/AL border, with 40 dBZ echoes reaching 30 kft amid
increasing lightning trends. These storms are attempting to
strengthen amid a modestly sheared airmass (i.e. 40 kts of effective
bulk shear per 17Z mesoanalysis and regional VADs). However,
buoyancy still remains quite marginal, with surface
temperatures/dewpoints in the 60s F, beneath 6 C/km tropospheric
lapse rates, contributing to 500 J/kg MLCAPE. Diurnal heating may
further boost low-level lapse rates, supporting better
boundary-layer buoyancy and the potential for stronger storms later
this afternoon, with mixed storm modes supporting the threat for
strong/damaging gusts and perhaps some hail. It is unclear how
widespread the severe potential will become since ample cloud cover
may continue to inhibit diurnal heating to some degree. If greater
buoyancy is realized than forecast, then regionally greater severe
potential may materialize, which could necessitate a WW issuance.

..Squitieri/Gleason.. 05/03/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...JAN...

LAT...LON 31588904 32108926 32918868 34438751 35028710 35188672
34928605 33628598 32378640 31848706 31638802 31588904

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 666

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.
www.spc.noaa.gov
 
Clancy said:
Atlanta's bad, but I've heard Houston is just a whole different beast. Not jealous.



Additionally, SPC monitoring for activity over Alabama. SVA not anticipated at this time, but if destabilization increases, then it may be more closely considered.

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 666

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.
www.spc.noaa.gov
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I cannot wait to get out of here next year. Trust me.
 
tennessee storm chaser said:
Only thing during summer that gets me interesting in is a true derecho …. They can be wicked , course winds main threat
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And it's been a while since West Tennessee and North MS has had a true derecho. So we're overdo for one.
 
JPWX said:
And it's been a while since West Tennessee and North MS has had a true derecho. So we're overdo for one.
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No doubt . Was thinking same thing… you can get winds in a derecho pretty nasty…. I have seen SPC issue a high risk before due to a modeled derecho . Seems like the Midwest had a bad derecho few years ago while they was under high risk…. Tornadoes are also possible in a true derecho event
 
Clancy said:
Atlanta's bad, but I've heard Houston is just a whole different beast. Not jealous.



Additionally, SPC monitoring for activity over Alabama. SVA not anticipated at this time, but if destabilization increases, then it may be more closely considered.

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 666

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.
www.spc.noaa.gov
Click to expand...
Mesocale Discussion 666. What bad could come fron this?
 
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