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Severe Weather 2025

US_Highway15 said:
I agree. I mean that hodograph shows tornado potential, but it's not even close to being 1974 violent. Helicity numbers don't seem that impressive either.
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Yeah, the SRH doesn't seem too impressive, CAPE seems really decent though, 2000-3000 J/Kg is being shown in the sounding. But the SRH and the hodograph doesn't seem to really match. Don't think it'll even be close to 1974 but the fact that its one of the top analogs had definitely earned this event my attention regardless.
 
Ozonelayer said:
Yeah, the SRH doesn't seem too impressive, CAPE seems really decent though, 2000-3000 J/Kg is being shown in the sounding. But the SRH and the hodograph doesn't seem to really match. Don't think it'll even be close to 1974 but the fact that its one of the top analogs had definitely earned this event my attention regardless.
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Oh definitely. CAPE numbers are there, including 3CAPE. The questions I have, is will there be enough SRH to kick the tornado gear into motion to truly make this an "all hazards event." So far, I haven't been that impressed, but SO MUCH can change in six days.
 
US_Highway15 said:
Oh definitely. CAPE numbers are there, including 3CAPE. The questions I have, is will there be enough SRH to kick the tornado gear into motion to truly make this an "all hazards event." So far, I haven't been that impressed, but SO MUCH can change in six days.
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Yeah, a lot can change in 6 days. I will say though, if the shear and helicity can get its act together and show up in even moderate numbers, then the CAPE, 3CAPE, decent lapse rates, and more might form a significant day. However, as of now, all we can do is wait. There is still many questions that need to be answered before I start calling this a significant setup.
 
US_Highway15 said:
I agree. I mean that hodograph shows tornado potential, but it's not even close to being 1974 violent. Helicity numbers don't seem that impressive either.
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That sounding is actually from Montgomery Alabama on 4/3/74. Which was removed from the better parameters and action to the north. It would be like a southern Georgia sounding from 4/27/11.

If you see a BNA sounding from 4/3/74, that’s a different story.
 
US_Highway15 said:
Ah, that makes a lot more sense now. Appreciate the clarification.
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No problem. I’ve seen that particular sounding pop up here and there the past few Aprils. One exact time I can cite was from the April 4, 2023 lead up, and I believe March 31, 2023 as well.

Now, like I said, if you ever see a BNA 4/3/74 sounding or a DAY 4/3/74 sounding, that would pique my interest on an event.
 
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