Severe Weather 2025

[AJS]

Starting to get interested Saturday and Sunday mid south area …..

What’re the models showing right now? I haven’t had time to get a good look at them.

 

[drscottsmith]

Dunno what the track record is for this model, but I came across this in my FB feed.

I do like the way the data are presented on this graph. On the public versions of what we are used to, you just see the upper limit of each area (e.g. 15, 30, 45). On this one, since the range of each color is specified (e.g. 5-15%; 15-30%), it seems to lend itself to providing a higher sense of attention and urgency.

 

[JPWX]

Too early for specifics beyond Thursday-Friday, but 00Z CFS/GFS are quite active at least through the middle of next week, then the former suggests more systems through at least May 10th. All the days combined could affect a large swath including the Plains, Midwest, Ohio Valley and the South.

Thru May 10th is exactly what I stated in my Patreon post last night.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Thru May 10th is exactly what I stated in my Patreon post last night.

Of course, latest (0Z 4/15) CFS just came in looking like hot garbage if you want to chase.

 

[Tennie]

Pretty consistent signal though

Consistent patterns on model runs are definitely something worth paying attention to, as even if they may show differences in detail and may not verify verbatim, the general trends would still suggest that there's something going on.

It really is surprising how Alabama has (besides the 15th but Mississippi got the worst) avoided a very high caliber outbreak the past 4 years. Seems like every region has had a big outbreak in that time frame. ArkLaMiss, Western KY and TN, the Ohio valley, the plains last year. Even the northern plains got in on the action on 4/26 last year.

Alabama had a pretty quiet period in the mid 2000s before Super Tuesday didn’t they?

It does seem like at least some areas go through repeated cycles of low activity followed by high activity followed by low activity, etc. I admittedly haven't dug too deeply on that subject (at least not recently, anyway), but I do recall that, for example, while the Great Plains were suffering from the Dust Bowl from the 1930s, most tornado activity shifted eastward (most notably hitting the Southeastern US quite hard with at least several notorious tornadoes and tornado outbreaks).

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Starting to get interested Saturday and Sunday mid south area …..

Euro definitely looks sorta promising for Sunday in the mid south area it looks like.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Euro definitely looks sorta promising for Sunday in the mid south area it looks like.

Yeah Little Rock klzk already mentioned discrete supper cellular activity…. I will start digging into
The models starting later today

 

[AJS]

Yeah Little Rock klzk already mentioned discrete supper cellular activity…. I will start digging into
The models starting later today

LZK has really gained my trust. So far, they’ve been spot on with their forecasting on their discussions so the fact they are already mentioning discrete super cellular activity has my attention.

 

[tornado examiner]

Arkansas can’t get a break can it?

 

[Clancy]

Definitely looks like the Mid-South might be under the gun yet again come weekend. SPC has a D6 outline for this threat on Sunday. Models still a little shaky; a compact feature like this would probably be the most potent solution. The remainder of the month also looks to be active across much of the South and Plains.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Definitely looks like the Mid-South might be under the gun yet again come weekend. SPC has a D6 outline for this threat on Sunday. Models still a little shaky; a compact feature like this would probably be the most potent solution. The remainder of the month also looks to be active across much of the South and Plains.
View attachment 39774View attachment 39775View attachment 39776View attachment 39777
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That's quite the look for day 6 and analogs for day 6 on cips.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

That's quite the look for day 6 and analogs for day 6 on cips.

Looks like rest will be over with ….

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Of course, the more recent two GFS runs came in with a very different 500mb look for Sunday afternoon/evening. Verbatim, threat would be much further east and fairly marginal.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

12z euro with a good look for a robust event in the mid south. GFS and EURO keep swapping lol.

 

[JPWX]

Euro for the win. GFS is just being the oddball as always. However, I will say that the dewpoints on the GFS are very favorable for severe storms. All 4 GFS runs today.

 

[ColdFront]

Euro for the win. GFS is just being the oddball as always. However, I will say that the dewpoints on the GFS are very favorable for severe storms. All 4 GFS runs today.

Always an oddball. GFS has not been very good this year.

 

[JPWX]

Here's the CPC Risk of Heavy Precipitation. Whenever I see CPC highlight a Slight Risk or any risk of Heavy Precipitation, that's a clear signal for severe weather potential

 

[tornado examiner]

Uh does everyone else see the massive visual change to this site UI?

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

Uh does everyone else see the massive visual change to this site UI?

this is located at the top of page

 

[AJS]

Uh does everyone else see the massive visual change to this site UI?

I actually kinda like this look better for some reason. Idk why.