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Severe Weather 2025

I would watch the Deep South region as well during that upcoming period too. We're not out of the severe weather/tornado threats yet.

I'm back!
 
CIPS lighting up a huge chunk of the country, including the Plains, Midwest and Deep South, for severe weather in the long range. The second half of April could hold a number of threats for a lot of us, but it's way too far out to nail down specific time frames or systems.
PRALLC01_gefsF168.pngPRALLC01_gefsF240.pngPRALLC01_gefsF312.png
 
@JayF @WesL
@Mike S

Site has been really buggy the past few days. Replies are broken for some of us and we can only add a post if we select reply to someone’s post, it’s asking me to “confirm” my likes on a post, and also not getting the option to use any other reactions like a laugh face etc.

I’ve tried multiple access methods including mobile and desktop, browsers, and singing off and back in and it’s the same across each method
 
ColdFront said:
@JayF @WesL
@Mike S

Site has been really buggy the past few days. Replies are broken for some of us and we can only add a post if we select reply to someone’s post, it’s asking me to “confirm” my likes on a post, and also not getting the option to use any other reactions like a laugh face etc.

I’ve tried multiple access methods including mobile and desktop, browsers, and singing off and back in and it’s the same across each method
Click to expand...

Hope it’s fixed soon @ColdFront
 
SPC has rather surprising (to me, since it appears to my eye model consistency hasn't been that great, although there has been an on/off signal there) areal highlights for Day 5 & 6 (this coming Thursday-Friday) out from portions of the Midwest to the Plains.

Edit: Just looked at the 00Z and 06Z GFS for Thursday and :eek:, where did that come from?

Storm Prediction Center Jun 14, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.
www.spc.noaa.gov

Screenshot 2025-04-13 090203.png
gfs_2025041306_114_41.0--95.5.png
 
ColdFront said:
The past few years have had a quiet early-mid April.
Click to expand...
Now seems like a good time to mention what I noticed about regional distribution TENDENCIES in Alabama

TL;DR: they're very surprisingly specific by month. This data is up to date as of about 2022.

January I would live in northern Alabama because most significant tornadoes have been in central and southern Alabama

February I would live south of Montgomery or north of the Tennessee River but not in between

March is when you get the widest distribution of significant tornadoes in Alabama. Even here, there's some strangeness: Your safest bets are a strange 40-60ish mile circle around Montgomery and, of course, Mobile. I will note that the immediate area around the Mississippi border, from north to south, has seen fewer tornadoes than the rest of the state about 20-40 miles eastward. Weird.

In April, the tracks become the most heavily concentrated of any month in Alabama, and, of course, you can guess the areas, all in the northern half or third of the state. Really, it's easier to comment on the areas that haven't seen a significant tornado. Those include, to my surprise, most of Lauderdale County (Florence) and the western half of Jackson County (Scottsboro). SW Alabama has seen relatively few, but, strangely, that excludes Mobile and its surroundings (April, 1950 and April 17, 2011). But southeastern Alabama and Montgomery are pretty quiet. It also appears that the chances of a significant tornadic event are slightly but definitely higher in the second half than the first half of April.

May, sorta like February, heavily favors the immediate middle of Alabama. Oddly, there have been a few siggies north of the Tennessee in May but none between northern Jefferson County and the river. May 3, 1984 saw one of very few significant tornadoes to hit near Montgomery.

November has been, once again, oddly specific, with most important tornadoes occurring between Birmingham and the Tennessee River (NOT north of the river except for Huntsville '89, a crazy occurrence, and an F3 in the same city in 1973). There have been a handful south of Birmingham, with one F3 hitting Montgomery in 1979.

December seems to be reserved for south of Gadsden and especially south of Tuscaloosa.
 
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