Severe Weather 2025

[Kds86z]

When it comes to starting a thread for severe weather. Just because there’s a day 6/7 doesn’t necessarily mean it will bring a crazy amount of severe storms. I’d wait until we look more into the kinematics before starting a thread. Sometimes people start one the day on the d1 day so. Let’s see how this goes day by day. But if there is any significant kinematics then we’ll pull a thread together. Just be a tad more patient .

Agree @Brice W

 

[MichelleH]

Agree @Brice W

Thank you and agree. Please no one start a thread for this yet.

 

[Clancy]

CIPS is picking up pretty strongly on that threat in the 23-24 range, and has been at least weakly signaling on it since before 3/15. It's also picking up some other threats that just don't seem to be there based on modelling in the preceding days though, so take that fwiw.

 

[ColdFront]

CIPS is picking up pretty strongly on that threat in the 23-24 range, and has been at least weakly signaling on it since before 3/15. It's also picking up some other threats that just don't seem to be there based on modelling in the preceding days though, so take that fwiw.
View attachment 36642

Right over a lot of the places that got hit this weekend too.

 

[Clancy]

Right over a lot of the places that got hit this weekend too.

Yeah, I'm really hoping this fizzles. Still shaking off the fatigue from getting sub-4 hours of sleep for the past 5 days watching the 3/15 system.

 

[Atlantic]

We do NOT need a repeat of the 3-14 to 3-16 storm again. Please go away signal!

 

[KevinH]

Mind you, we are in MARCH. I am not sure if this has been seen before, but when I said don’t be surprised when the earth starts doing things it has never done before, or things that people (in general, not METS) think are “impossible”, THIS is what I mean

Not sure where this was supposed to go, and couldn’t find the right thread sooooo… here:

 

[KevinH]

CIPS is picking up pretty strongly on that threat in the 23-24 range, and has been at least weakly signaling on it since before 3/15. It's also picking up some other threats that just don't seem to be there based on modelling in the preceding days though, so take that fwiw.
View attachment 36642

(The graphic/signal, not @Clancy lol)

 

[TheSuckZone]

 

[Mike S]

Mind you, we are in MARCH. I am not sure if this has been seen before, but when I said don’t be surprised when the earth starts doing things it has never done before, or things that people (in general, not METS) think are “impossible”, THIS is what I mean

Not sure where this was supposed to go, and couldn’t find the right thread sooooo… here:

2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

We are five days away from the end of the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Since the season is about to end, I thought I would post my predictions for 2025 here. Based off of trends over the last year or two (and my gut feeling), here are my predictions for landfall risk around the basin in...

talkweather.com

 

[Telstar]

Mind you, we are in MARCH. I am not sure if this has been seen before, but when I said don’t be surprised when the earth starts doing things it has never done before, or things that people (in general, not METS) think are “impossible”, THIS is what I mean

Not sure where this was supposed to go, and couldn’t find the right thread sooooo… here:

There’s the old saw to describe March: “In like a lion; out like a lamb”. At least in Tennessee, I remember March as being the wild month for tornadoes, but the severe weather seems lately to have slid to April.

 

[KevinH]

2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

We are five days away from the end of the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Since the season is about to end, I thought I would post my predictions for 2025 here. Based off of trends over the last year or two (and my gut feeling), here are my predictions for landfall risk around the basin in...

talkweather.com

Awesome! Thank you…

 

[ColdFront]

Definitely a signal there amongst the ensembles for the outlook area on the GEFS.

 

[JPWX]

The GFS seemed to be the first one to hint at Friday/Saturday's event. I'll look more into the models once I get finished going through GoPro footage.

 

[JPWX]

18z GEFS Max Supercell Composite Parameter for Sunday, Probability for SCP value greater than 1 Sunday into Monday. The CFS Week 1 is hinting at it too.

 

[AJS]

18z GEFS Max Supercell Composite Parameter for Sunday, Probability for SCP value greater than 1 Sunday into Monday. The CFS Week 1 is hinting at it too.

Right in my neck of the woods too. Houston doesn’t get severe weather outbreaks as much as some other areas, but when we do, it’s usually pretty intense.

 

[AJS]

Shifted slightly south now.

 

[Kds86z]

View attachment 36687
Shifted slightly south now.

No mention of supercells yet..

 

[MMWX]

No mention of supercells yet..

You're not going to find too many mesoscale words being thrown around when we are 6 days away.

 

[Kds86z]

You're not going to find too many mesoscale words being thrown around when we are 6 days away.

Sometime they do certainly. Often enough. Higher end events I mean.