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2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Atlantic

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We are five days away from the end of the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Since the season is about to end, I thought I would post my predictions for 2025 here.

Screenshot 2024-11-25 10.30.27 AM.png
Based off of trends over the last year or two (and my gut feeling), here are my predictions for landfall risk around the basin in 2025
12-20 NAMED STORMS (MY FORECAST MADE ON NOV 25TH, 2024)
5-12 HURRICANES (MY FORECAST MADE ON NOV 25TH, 2024)
2-7 MAJOR HURRICANES (MY FORECAST MADE ON NOV 25TH, 2024)
115-175 ACE (MY FORECAST MADE ON NOV 25TH, 2024)


I expect at least one possible Irma-like track in 2025 based on recent track trends near the end of 2024's season.
In terms of storms, I think 2025 will have a slow start with at least one named storm forming in June.
 

IdaliaHelene

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We are five days away from the end of the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Since the season is about to end, I thought I would post my predictions for 2025 here.

View attachment 31613
Based off of trends over the last year or two (and my gut feeling), here are my predictions for landfall risk around the basin in 2025
12-20 NAMED STORMS (MY FORECAST MADE ON NOV 25TH, 2024)
5-12 HURRICANES (MY FORECAST MADE ON NOV 25TH, 2024)
2-7 MAJOR HURRICANES (MY FORECAST MADE ON NOV 25TH, 2024)
115-175 ACE (MY FORECAST MADE ON NOV 25TH, 2024)


I expect at least one possible Irma-like track in 2025 based on recent track trends near the end of 2024's season.
In terms of storms, I think 2025 will have a slow start with at least one named storm forming in June.
I've used numerology to make a prediction on the 2025 season. It's predicting 16-9-4 with a very high ACE, and it's even mapped out specific names
 

Atlantic

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I've used numerology to make a prediction on the 2025 season. It's predicting 16-9-4 with a very high ACE, and it's even mapped out specific names
I'd like to know about that. Mind PM'ing me about that?
 

IdaliaHelene

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NameFormation DateImpact DateName VibrationPeak Intensity (Category, mbar, mph)Landfall Intensity (Location, Category, mbar, mph)PathDamage ($ Billion)DeathsRetired?Numerological Link
Portuguese/Spanish male (removed name)September 4September 73Cat 5, 915 mbar, 160 mphRemovedBahamas → Miami → LouisianaRemovedRemovedYesJohn Doe’s sum 25 and universal year 9, master numbers 22 and 11 signify extreme transformative impact
 

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I don't usually give my thoughts this early on next season, but I'll make an exception. Next season I do believe will be above average once again. How much above normal as well as activity dependent upon ENSO (Neutral, El Nino, or La Nina) as well as the MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation). The current idea as far as ENSO goes is we finally head into a La Nina at some point during the upcoming winter/spring. We were suppose to already be in La Nina, but that has failed to happen thus far. MJO is very tricky figuring out this far in advance. The idea is to watch trends going forward with ENSO status for now.
 

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I don't usually give my thoughts this early on next season, but I'll make an exception. Next season I do believe will be above average once again. How much above normal as well as activity dependent upon ENSO (Neutral, El Nino, or La Nina) as well as the MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation). The current idea as far as ENSO goes is we finally head into a La Nina at some point during the upcoming winter/spring. We were suppose to already be in La Nina, but that has failed to happen thus far. MJO is very tricky figuring out this far in advance. The idea is to watch trends going forward with ENSO status for now.
I've seen the CANSIPS and other models predict a CP/modoki nino starting next summer with +AMO and piping hot waters but I'm not believing this ngl.
 

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I've seen the CANSIPS and other models predict a CP/modoki nino starting next summer with +AMO and piping hot waters but I'm not believing this ngl.
I've seen that too and it's good you mention the Modoki El Nino. The last time we had that during the Atlantic hurricane season was 2004.
 

IdaliaHelene

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I've seen that too and it's good you mention the Modoki El Nino.
What did you think of it?
The last time we had that during the Atlantic hurricane season was 2004.
I thought people said 2009 was modoki el nino, or was that incorrect?
I do believe next year may be more east-based, and plenty of powerful storms uncomfortably close to land
 

IdaliaHelene

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NameFormation DateImpact DateName VibrationPeak Intensity (Category, mbar, mph)Landfall Intensity (Location, Category, mbar, mph)PathDamage ($ Billion)DeathsRetired?Numerological Link
Portuguese/Spanish male (removed name)September 4September 73Cat 5, 915 mbar, 160 mphRemovedBahamas → Miami → LouisianaRemovedRemovedYesJohn Doe’s sum 25 and universal year 9, master numbers 22 and 11 signify extreme transformative impact
@JPWX and if you follow numerology I came up with this following a calculation (the name was removed, but it's one of the names)
 

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I only found out a few years ago about the Modoki El Nino and La Nina. There's not as much research about it as I would have thought so there's not like a general expectation for what type of weather to expect like the usual wetness/below normal hurricane seasons during El Nino and drier than normal/above normal hurricane seasons during La Nina. I did see that too (2009 to 2010 Modoki El Nino), but I haven't come across any credible source to verify that.
 

IdaliaHelene

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I only found out a few years ago about the Modoki El Nino and La Nina. There's not as much research about it as I would have thought so there's not like a general expectation for what type of weather to expect like the usual wetness/below normal hurricane seasons during El Nino and drier than normal/above normal hurricane seasons during La Nina. I did see that too (2009 to 2010 Modoki El Nino), but I haven't come across any credible source to verify that.
for some reason I believe it'll pull a 2017 (forecasted el nino, la nina reality) and would end up well above average anyway
 

IdaliaHelene

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We are five days away from the end of the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Since the season is about to end, I thought I would post my predictions for 2025 here.

View attachment 31613
Based off of trends over the last year or two (and my gut feeling), here are my predictions for landfall risk around the basin in 2025
12-20 NAMED STORMS (MY FORECAST MADE ON NOV 25TH, 2024)
5-12 HURRICANES (MY FORECAST MADE ON NOV 25TH, 2024)
2-7 MAJOR HURRICANES (MY FORECAST MADE ON NOV 25TH, 2024)
115-175 ACE (MY FORECAST MADE ON NOV 25TH, 2024)


I expect at least one possible Irma-like track in 2025 based on recent track trends near the end of 2024's season.
In terms of storms, I think 2025 will have a slow start with at least one named storm forming in June.
AYO THE FIRST UCL (University College London) FORECAST IS OUT

THEY'RE GOING FOR AN AVERAGE SEASON


 

IdaliaHelene

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I only found out a few years ago about the Modoki El Nino and La Nina. There's not as much research about it as I would have thought so there's not like a general expectation for what type of weather to expect like the usual wetness/below normal hurricane seasons during El Nino and drier than normal/above normal hurricane seasons during La Nina. I did see that too (2009 to 2010 Modoki El Nino), but I haven't come across any credible source to verify that.
What are your thoughts on the TSR/UCL prediction

15-7-3
 

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15-7-3 is a good call for this far out. 2025 looks like it could be a destructive year if all the conditions are right.
 

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What makes you think so?

It's saying the analog hurricane seasons are probably 2012 and 2018. jfl at the underestimate
Ha! 2012 and 2018!!! lol!

Have you noticed that both 2004 and 2024 had multiple Florida landfalls and at least four fish storms with most of the activity focused around the western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico? That’s partly because there wasn’t a semi-permanent high pressure ridge over Newfoundland.

2005 had a lot of activity up the East Coast and had a semi-permanent high pressure ridge over Newfoundland, which allowed activity to be all over the place in the open Subtropical Atlantic and to go up the East coast. 2005 was also a short-duration cool neutral to La Niña. 2005 had several strong storms go through the Florida strait between Florida and Cuba too. The warmth in the subtropics caused the Bermuda-Azores High to weaken, allowing for a bunch of subtropics action that year.

The climate models for the 2025 are suggesting a similar setup for a cool neutral to weak, short-lived La Niña. Climate models are suggesting a large above average temperature warm pool in the subtropical Atlantic for the hurricane season.

If 2024 was 2004…

Does that point to the possibility of 2025 being a modern day 2005? We will see.


I found all of this out this morning watching WxCenterNazrio on YouTube.
 

IdaliaHelene

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Ha! 2012 and 2018!!! lol!
JFLLL
Have you noticed that both 2004 and 2024 had multiple Florida landfalls and at least four fish storms with most of the activity focused around the western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico? That’s partly because there wasn’t a semi-permanent high pressure ridge over Newfoundland.
Exactly, and 2003 featured a lot of hurricanes skimming the East Coast just like what Frankie and Lee did
2005 had a lot of activity up the East Coast and had a semi-permanent high pressure ridge over Newfoundland, which allowed activity to be all over the place in the open Subtropical Atlantic and to go up the East coast. 2005 was also a short-duration cool neutral to La Niña. 2005 had several strong storms go through the Florida strait between Florida and Cuba too. The warmth in the subtropics caused the Bermuda-Azores High to weaken, allowing for a bunch of subtropics action that year.
I also kinda wonder if indeed we're getting a more east coast based season than a Gulf based season. What do you think?
The climate models for the 2025 are suggesting a similar setup for a cool neutral to weak, short-lived La Niña. Climate models are suggesting a large above average temperature warm pool in the subtropical Atlantic for the hurricane season.
What would that mean for the longevity of the storms, and intensity? TSR for some reason is saying this will be some normie season but I am caging hard I doubt it tbh ngl.
If 2024 was 2004…

Does that point to the possibility of 2025 being a modern day 2005? We will see.
JFL I think this year will follow suit but IDK we shall see
I found all of this out this morning watching WxCenterNazrio on YouTube.
Do you have a link to his channel please?
 
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