RollTide18
Member
- Messages
- 156
- Location
- Montgomery, AL
Classic spring non-severe storm
-
Welcome to TalkWeather! We see you lurking around TalkWeather! Take the extra step and join us today to view attachments, see less ads and maybe even join the discussion. CLICK TO JOIN TALKWEATHER
Severe Weather 2025
- Thread starter KevinH
- Start date
Classic spring non-severe storm
warneagle
Member
oh lawd he comin'
- Messages
- 1,786
- Location
- Norman, OK
18z GFS looks like an outbreak in AR/LA on Friday (potentially extending north as well into the Midwest) and another substantial event on MS/AL on Saturday. 12z Euro was also a notable improvement in trough geometry from before with better moisture (and the 18z Euro improved on the moisture further).
- Messages
- 1,786
- Location
- Norman, OK
Two points here as I peruse some of the latest guidance.
1) The Friday threat looks to extend nocturnally based on the moisture return continuing after dark into the South with weak capping.
2) Saturday could be very problematic in MS/AL/etc. if that lead upper low/wave (responsible for Friday's threat) lifts far enough north/east as to allow the secondary vorticity maximum enough room to mature and interact with the continued feed of moisture into the Gulf Coast states. There are some pretty dangerous looking soundings coming off the GFS.
1) The Friday threat looks to extend nocturnally based on the moisture return continuing after dark into the South with weak capping.
2) Saturday could be very problematic in MS/AL/etc. if that lead upper low/wave (responsible for Friday's threat) lifts far enough north/east as to allow the secondary vorticity maximum enough room to mature and interact with the continued feed of moisture into the Gulf Coast states. There are some pretty dangerous looking soundings coming off the GFS.
- Messages
- 6,437
- Location
- Birmingham
If I were a betting man a day 6 severe risk will be outlined tommorow.
KevinH
Member
- Messages
- 2,511
- Location
- West Central GA
Same
KevinH
Member
- Messages
- 2,511
- Location
- West Central GA
Made me laugh, but I’ll wait for the SPC lol
- Messages
- 6,437
- Location
- Birmingham
Every 13 year old when the supercell composite reaches a 3 lol. Start spamming that high risk
FORECASTER: TIMMER
WaryWarren
Member
- Messages
- 68
- Location
- Minneapolis, MN
- Messages
- 6,437
- Location
- Birmingham
I'm still not entirely sure I've grown out of my weather weenie stage fully lol. I think it was more so the enthusiasm for weather that made the hype super bad. I remember the weather weenie stage being particularly bad when I was 13-16 though, what a nightmare. Half of those checked lol. I feel like weather weenies come from a good place, that energy just has to be channeled in a more prodcutive way haha
The Hypothetical tornadoes wiki is Weather Weenie Central
Hypothetical Tornadoes Wiki
The Hypothetical Tornadoes Wiki is a database for all kinds of fictional tornadoes and tornado outbreaks. Come and join us!
hypotheticaltornadoes.fandom.com
- Messages
- 876
- Location
- Iowa
Anecdotally, Iowa has had record low snowfall totals this winter. The last time snow totals were this low was the 1965-66 winter. The '66 tornado season opened with the March 3rd Candlestick Park, MS F5 which killed 58 and injured 521. There were 3 total F5s that season.
en.m.wikipedia.org
I've been thinking all winter it seems abnormal how far south these huge cold fronts have been pushing. Iowa hasn't been getting snow because everything is developing way further south than normal. With record high temps in the gulf and several winter storms in Dixie alley this year, it seems like a recipe for big outbursts of severe weather in the south as seasons change. .
Tornadoes of 1966 - Wikipedia
I've been thinking all winter it seems abnormal how far south these huge cold fronts have been pushing. Iowa hasn't been getting snow because everything is developing way further south than normal. With record high temps in the gulf and several winter storms in Dixie alley this year, it seems like a recipe for big outbursts of severe weather in the south as seasons change. .
- Messages
- 6,437
- Location
- Birmingham
Credit where credit is due there's a lot of work being put into that from some people. I always stumbled upon that webpage but never really found interest. I always found more interest in the actual tornado events here in Alabama. We tend to get a lot anyways lol. I could see it being more interesting in areas that don't get impacted much.The Hypothetical tornadoes wiki is Weather Weenie Central
Hypothetical Tornadoes Wiki
The Hypothetical Tornadoes Wiki is a database for all kinds of fictional tornadoes and tornado outbreaks. Come and join us!
KevinH
Member
- Messages
- 2,511
- Location
- West Central GA
Someone has mentioned a possible correlation between snowfall and tornado outbreaks. If I knew more about meteorology, I would be interested in going down that rabbit hole.Anecdotally, Iowa has had record low snowfall totals this winter. The last time snow totals were this low was the 1965-66 winter. The '66 tornado season opened with the March 3rd Candlestick Park, MS F5 which killed 58 and injured 521. There were 3 total F5s that season.
Tornadoes of 1966 - Wikipedia
I've been thinking all winter it seems abnormal how far south these huge cold fronts have been pushing. Iowa hasn't been getting snow because everything is developing way further south than normal. With record high temps in the gulf and several winter storms in Dixie alley this year, it seems like a recipe for big outbursts of severe weather in the south as seasons change. .
MattW
Member
With all due respect, can we please keep the discussion in this topic on the actual threat? I'm a little tired of checking this site, seeing a bunch of new replies, and seeing nothing but junky memes and jokes about bad forecasts. As I recall, there's a weather banter thread for that stuff. I look in here to get good information on an event that actually might impact my life next week.
- Messages
- 6,437
- Location
- Birmingham
I'll post mine in there!
I’d highly encourage you to get your area’s forecast and any outlook or updates on next week for your area from your local WFO. This event is still a week away, once this comes into range a little more to comply with the rules a thread will be made. This is still just the general severe wx 2025 chat. This is a hobbyist forum after all, and the majority of us aren’t Mets, so this should not be your only source of information. Especially 7 days out…With all due respect.
And there is nothing wrong with a little joking around. Like I said, if you want a steady stream of info with no BS, check out your local WFO. WFOs are there for that exact reason. Otherwise, you’re going to get other messages mixed in.
Last edited:
KevinH
Member
- Messages
- 2,511
- Location
- West Central GA
My apologies.
A thread for next week has not been created (yet), and I was not aware of a banter thread (never cared to look lol).
Just tried to lighten the mood a bit before a potentially significant event.