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Severe Weather 2025

I think in general the trends on the lead wave have been quite positive. Almost all operational, AI, and ensemble output seems to be shifting quite significantly towards that lead wave travelling further south east and sweeping out the quality moisture.

The only thing to watch would be whether it phases with the exiting jet steak across the NE and models switch back to a more NE/E motion closer to the time. Still quite a few days of significant changes in model output still likely, so still needs to be paid attention to, of course.
 
ColdFront said:
12Z GFS hot off the press. Actually punts it out to Saturday. Amplified trough
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Parker Copeland said:
so event got longer??? or was it moved back a day, kinda confused by this statement
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If this is the case, then there would be less of a reliance on the lead shortwave that shunts things out into the Gulf of Mexico, because a slower trough has more time to pump moisture in. I'm no expert, but that 12z GFS run looks pretty nasty. I don't know anything much about the specifics of trough geometry and how it impacts sig-severe potential, but this newest run slowed down significantly, and the ejection just looks more favorable to me. I would love to hear from the experts about this newest run because it looks quite a lot different.

The moisture return still lacks quite a lot, but a global this far out tends to do that.
 
slenker said:
If this is the case, then there would be less of a reliance on the lead shortwave that shunts things out into the Gulf of Mexico, because a slower trough has more time to pump moisture in. I'm no expert, but that 12z GFS run looks pretty nasty. I don't know anything much about the specifics of trough geometry and how it impacts sig-severe potential, but this newest run slowed down significantly, and the ejection just looks more favorable to me. I would love to hear from the experts about this newest run because it looks quite a lot different.

The moisture return still lacks quite a lot, but a global this far out tends to do that.
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Yeah but the last event just was lacking moisture so….the global models were right.
 
tornado examiner said:
Yeah but the last event just was lacking moisture so….the global models were right.
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For last event, yes. They ended up being correct. But that doesn't change the fact that they do tend to be a bit lacking on moisture return a couple days in advance, especially for big events. IIRC, I believe the monster outbreak of April 26 last year's big question in the days leading up to it was moisture return, and that ended up being one of the system's biggest reasons why it performed the way it did.
 
My assessment is this system will look like a high risk 3 different runs between now and next Friday, then it will get a 10 percent tornado day 1, end up getting a qlcs with random tornado reports, and the sun will set an hour later next week compared to this week!

Haha in all seriousness it's still a ways out
 
slenker said:
If this is the case, then there would be less of a reliance on the lead shortwave that shunts things out into the Gulf of Mexico, because a slower trough has more time to pump moisture in. I'm no expert, but that 12z GFS run looks pretty nasty. I don't know anything much about the specifics of trough geometry and how it impacts sig-severe potential, but this newest run slowed down significantly, and the ejection just looks more favorable to me. I would love to hear from the experts about this newest run because it looks quite a lot different.

The moisture return still lacks quite a lot, but a global this far out tends to do that.
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Even with a little more space between the two waves from the main one potentially slowing down a little, we still have a situation where the lead wave that we were looking to lift out to act as a primer not only slides across instead, but it tries to dig and amplify after it gets out into the western Atlantic. That will also mess up the wavelengths and moisture return/quality, regardless of the timing of the main wave behind it. If the lead wave isn't lifting in latitude as it comes across the eastern United States and flattening and shearing out as it does, there is a legitimate reason why those models are lacking in moisture, even if the timing of the wave behind it is getting slightly delayed.
 
Fred Gossage said:
Even with a little more space between the two waves from the main one potentially slowing down a little, we still have a situation where the lead wave that we were looking to lift out to act as a primer not only slides across instead, but it tries to dig and amplify after it gets out into the western Atlantic. That will also mess up the wavelengths and moisture return/quality, regardless of the timing of the main wave behind it. If the lead wave isn't lifting in latitude as it comes across the eastern United States and flattening and shearing out as it does, there is a legitimate reason why those models are lacking in moisture, even if the timing of the wave behind it is getting slightly delayed.
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May not be the right place to ask this question Fred, but is this the longest we’ve gone between double digit (or at least 5) violent tornados in a single outbreak? Isn’t it pre-1880s the last time a streak this long has happened? This is just an overall question and not related to anything with this system.

EF to F scale comparisons aside.
 
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ColdFront said:
May not be the right place to ask this question Fred, but is this the longest we’ve gone between double digit violent tornados in a single outbreak? Isn’t it pre-1880s the last time a streak this long has happened?

EF to F scale comparisons aside.
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Think the super cold weather we had this winter and the snow along the gulf earlier has tampered things bit. May take while to recover from that
 
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