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Severe Weather 2025

The College of Dupage's floaters are over Texas and Louisiana and the GFS is showing nonstop isolated convection there, but the Euro isn't showing anything. Maybe the conditions everywhere east of the Rockies are actually just going to be as chaotic and unstable as everything is showing. How crazy would that be? Lmao.
 
Grand Poo Bah said:
Good lord, the Euro now has the low at 985mb over South Dakota and Minnesota. I don't feel like it's normal for it to be this bullish?

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We're also only 4 days out from the start of this event and the picture isn't any more refined than it was 4 days ago. I can't imagine how difficult this one is going to be for the SPC to peg down. Is it actually possible we see an explosion of severe weather as widespread and intense as the Euro, GFS, CIPs, and CSU MLM have been indicating?

Sure, they've backed down a couple times (the GFS more than the Euro), but then they just come right back even more intense than before. Can't wait until I'm back at the office and can dig into soundings again.
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Great height falls also …. There looks be increasing threat for a good event further south because of that issue
 
The way that early Spring severe weather kicked off and then suddenly shut off. That's when I got very suspicious and said to myself, Gulf States/Mid-South aren't done yet. I for one was honestly glad for the mid/late April shutdown because we know how bad late April can be
 
I would be very cautious of overhyping or getting so heavily caught up, especially with the soundings. We’ve seen plenty of times where modeling of a potential setup didn’t come out as panned 5-7 days before. There is definitely a high potential of some magnitude of severe weather over a vast majority of the country, absolutely. It’s mid-late May, thermos won’t (or likely shouldn’t) be an issue.

Once I see SPC buying more into the risk and highlighting more areas (aside from D5), I’ll be buying more into it. Just taking a more cautious approach to this.
 
Sharpy said:
I would be very cautious of overhyping or getting so heavily caught up, especially with the soundings. We’ve seen plenty of times where modeling of a potential setup didn’t come out as panned 5-7 days before. There is definitely a high potential of some magnitude of severe weather over a vast majority of the country, absolutely. It’s mid-late May, thermos won’t (or likely shouldn’t) be an issue.

Once I see SPC buying more into the risk and highlighting more areas (aside from D5), I’ll be buying more into it. Just taking a more cautious approach to this.
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Amen
 
Sharpy said:
I would be very cautious of overhyping or getting so heavily caught up, especially with the soundings. We’ve seen plenty of times where modeling of a potential setup didn’t come out as panned 5-7 days before. There is definitely a high potential of some magnitude of severe weather over a vast majority of the country, absolutely. It’s mid-late May, thermos won’t (or likely shouldn’t) be an issue.

Once I see SPC buying more into the risk and highlighting more areas (aside from D5), I’ll be buying more into it. Just taking a more cautious approach to this.
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I would like to see the operationals agree more strongly on what the trough after D5 looks like before we make any substantial claims on what may occur. The 12z GFS and Euro do admittedly look at least somewhat impressive over a wide area though, and they've started to converge a lot better than they were before.
 
Sharpy said:
I would be very cautious of overhyping or getting so heavily caught up, especially with the soundings. We’ve seen plenty of times where modeling of a potential setup didn’t come out as panned 5-7 days before. There is definitely a high potential of some magnitude of severe weather over a vast majority of the country, absolutely. It’s mid-late May, thermos won’t (or likely shouldn’t) be an issue.

Once I see SPC buying more into the risk and highlighting more areas (aside from D5), I’ll be buying more into it. Just taking a more cautious approach to this.
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Agreed. The biggest question marks will be kinematics, especially the location of the Low. I haven’t seen anything yet that screams “tornado outbreak”, but definetly some type of severe weather. That could be a huge MCS, Hail, or tornados.
 
slenker said:
I would like to see the operationals agree more strongly on what the trough after D5 looks like before we make any substantial claims on what may occur. The 12z GFS and Euro do admittedly look at least somewhat impressive over a wide area though, and they've started to converge a lot better than they were before.
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We’ll definitely have a better idea mid-week of what the trough looks like because it’ll be meaningful downstream for what happens with the same and/or other areas with timing and strength with the following trough.
 
One of the most concerning aspects in my mind is that this isn't April anymore where you have more frontal systems getting through more and having to have a few days of moisture recovery. This is May where you begin to get less and less frontal intrusions meaning the moisture is already there (in more abundance) plus you have more daytime heating across the Deep South. Plus higher dewpoints (mid 70s)
 
FWD has this mention for next week

The shortwave will race off to the east Friday night and Saturday,
but a larger scale trough digging southeast through the Great
Basin will provide additional opportunities for showers and
storms. The trough will develop a closed low while moving slowly
east through the southern Rockies, making for an active weather
pattern next weekend through early the following week. Severe
weather, though not guaranteed, is a good bet at some point during
the Friday to next Monday period (May 16-19) and we will gather
more specifics over the next several days.
 
Would really need to see the timing of the system slow down (by just about 3 hours) compared to recent GFS solutions to maximize the severe threat in Wisconsin/Illinois Thursday afternoon. SPC notes that is in fact a bias with the model, but it continues to hold consistent with that through the current (06Z) run.
 
Ozonelayer said:
Who ordered mid-May madness? Dear lord the weather has no mercy on my sleep schedule.
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March Madness has returned disgised as May Madness.
Season 2 Goodbye GIF by Paramount+
 
Grand Poo Bah said:
CSU has some hatched areas and 44% severe weather probabilities. May be time for a dedicated thread. Probably won't be that active until finals wrap up this week though lol.

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Going to be tricky doing threads because it looks like there's going to be about a 7 day span of some sort of severe weather lol
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
Going to be tricky doing threads because it looks like there's going to be about a 7 day span of some sort of severe weather lol
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I started one for Thursday-Friday, since that looks like the "first wave" with Saturday perhaps being a relative down day before another event Sunday-Monday and possibly beyond. It can be extended or new ones created as needed.
 
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