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Severe Weather 2025

ColdFront said:
video on 4/2 high risk is out

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Haven't finished it yet, but what a great video so far. Chris is really good at breaking things down enough for everybody to follow along and listen easily - that can be hard to do, especially if you're talking in-depth about a specialty topic. His explainer also helps show just how much goes into the outlooks.
 
Clancy said:
Haven't finished it yet, but what a great video so far. Chris is really good at breaking things down enough for everybody to follow along and listen easily - that can be hard to do, especially if you're talking in-depth about a specialty topic. His explainer also helps show just how much goes into the outlooks.
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One of the most educational videos on severe weather I have ever seen. I know the Broyles meme is out there and it’s funny, but he verified what he was seeing with many different tools and even went and found a similar synoptic set up from the past to compare to 4/2 to see if it also produced a tornado outbreak. He talked about how serious he and the SPC take high risks and how they aren’t put out lightly. He really is just excellent at what he does and some of the tools he helped build seem to be game changing for forecasting. One thing I’m taking away from the video is there’s more to looking at an outbreak than reflectivity on CAMS.

I think some of the stronger wording he uses just comes from his confidence in his forecast, which isn’t misplaced at all. He really is a pro at his craft
 
ColdFront said:
Amen One of the most educational videos on severe weather I have ever seen. I know the Broyles meme is out there and it’s funny, but he verified what he was seeing with many different tools and even went and found a similar synoptic set up from the past to compare to 4/2 to see if it also produced a tornado outbreak. He talked about how serious he and the SPC take high risks and how they aren’t put out lightly. He really is just excellent at what he does and some of the tools he helped build seem to be game changing for forecasting. One thing I’m taking away from the video is there’s more to looking at an outbreak than reflectivity on CAMS.

I think some of the stronger wording he uses just comes from his confidence in his forecast, which isn’t misplaced at all. He really is a pro at his craft
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Travel GIF by Expedia
 
SmokeEater said:
A thread hasn't been made for after the 16th yet correct? Just making sure I'm posting in the right spot. A lot of of the talking heads, chasers, etc, are really pushing the 18-20th time frame. And ones that usually don't hype either.
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I believe a thread is justified at this point. SPC put out some severe probs for those days, and I have got to say, I am very impressed with what I'm seeing so far. I'd like to hear input from the big METs here though. Looks like it could be one of those classic big plains days.
 
This is pretty cool. Not often you see a dust plume moving across North MS.
 

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Sunday and Monday look like classic mid may I-35 corridor plains days with huge cape and favorable shear. Verbatim the 12 euro bring the system through slowly enough that Tuesday is an extremely high end setup. Most of the other models are more progressive/less compact with the low and swing the best shear through Tuesday morning.

12z Euro run at 0z Wednesday:
 

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Schoeppeya said:
Sunday and Monday look like classic mid may I-35 corridor plains days with huge cape and favorable shear. Verbatim the 12 euro bring the system through slowly enough that Tuesday is an extremely high end setup. Most of the other models are more progressive/less compact with the low and swing the best shear through Tuesday morning.

12z Euro run at 0z Wednesday:
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Made a thread for it. Synoptically, I’m not liking this.
 
Schoeppeya said:
Yeah living in Tulsa I’ll be pretty concerned if we trend towards the euro. Crazy how as a young adult these events were all excitement and now that I have kids the anxiety just starts building.
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Yeah. Eventually one of these plain setups will be another 5/20/19 and actually verify. Thats why it’s so urgent to prepare no matter what because you genuinely never know.
 
slenker said:
Yup! That’s where I got that info from. It’s cool that that high risk wouldn’t have been possible in years past and with the recent developments of OMEGA and whatnot, it allowed them to efficiently forecast a very sneaky day that ended up verifying well into the high risk range.

Don’t want to derail this thread though - I don’t think a high risk is in the cards either tbf.
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Quoting here to reduce clutter in the ongoing event thread. That does beg the question if OMEGA was used on 4/26/2024. If not, why not, and if so, what caused it to still miss the ceiling that day?

That's probably one of the five or so tornado events of the 2020-'24 period that produced in line with what I consider a "classic" high risk day of the '90s and early-middle '00s (only two of which - 3/25/21, and 3/31/23 - actually were high risks) and it was the only one categorized below a moderate risk.

I also wonder if it was used for 5/25/2024, in which they explicitly stated they strongly considered a high risk on the 1730Z Day 2, but held off first due to (lack of) storm coverage concerns, which then quickly changed to outflow and splits interfering with the warm sector, which is what ended up verifying.
 
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CheeselandSkies said:
Quoting here to reduce clutter in the ongoing event thread. That does beg the question if OMEGA was used on 4/26/2024. If not, why not, and if so, what caused it to still miss the ceiling that day?
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OMEGA still had a false alarm rate of 52.4% over 2023-24, in a favourable period. It's an improvement over the older measures they were comparing it to, but not a slam-dunk.
 
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