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Severe Weather 2025

I know we were just discussing about how the operationals at this range are a bit wonky and shouldn’t be fully trusted, but the 18z GFS was particularly interesting to me. Both the operational Euro and GFS keep flipping between genuine nothing burgers to events of varying intensity with each passing run. This one is definitely higher end over a wide area, starting from hour ~156 and ending at hour ~240:
floop-gfs-2025051018.500wh.conus.gif
Again, it’s the operational run so there should be a great deal of caution in analyzing this, but the trough is quite something here.
 
Sorry for large pics. I'm on my phone.

Interesting tidbit I found. It appears we're completely neutral between El Nina and El Nino right now. With TNI values at a measly +0.14 currently. Maybe this explains the low performance of April.

IMG_2227.png
IMG_2228.png

However, I tried my best to get my head around @Fred Gossage and @Matt Grantham 's MJO amplification theory and did some poking around on Tropical Tidbits, and it looks like we could be transitioning into an amplified MJO. Hard to say.

This is the CFS weekly model's 200mb CHI anomalies for 1 and 4 weeks from now. Don't know wtf CHI means and not having any luck finding out with Google, but that's well defined as hell. (Edit: it might mean cloud height indicators, which measures the lowest cloud layers covering more than half the sky)

This is +1 week (our potential outbreak)
IMG_2234.jpeg

This is +4 weeks
IMG_2231.png

I also tried digging around with sea surface temp anomalies, but since we're in a neutral phase it's really hard to get a good read. It looks like a moderately amplified MJO for our potential outbreak here too. I also calculated a TNI for this period of somewhere between -1.25 and -1.5.

IMG_2232.jpeg

Fred and Matt haven't been active for a little while, so if you search their recent posts you can see the theories I'm talking about. If anyone who has access to paid forecasting tools can look at the models they used in their study and report back I'd be extremely interested in your findings.
 
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Reed Timmer Extreme Meteorologist

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1h ·
MULTIPLE TORNADO OUTBREAKS POSSIBLE MAY 15-22 CENTRAL & EASTERN U.S.
Long-range forecast models are showing a major uptick in severe weather from the southern Plains to Great Lakes Region through the Piedmont of Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic region late next week through the following week! This will include the potential for multiple significant severe weather outbreaks with #tornado threat.
The first peak could be across Iowa, Missouri, Illinois into the Great Lakes Region next Thursday.
Stay tuned for updates on the peak #tornado season ahead

1746937434831.png
 
Jbop said:

Reed Timmer Extreme Meteorologist​

​

​

1h ·
MULTIPLE TORNADO OUTBREAKS POSSIBLE MAY 15-22 CENTRAL & EASTERN U.S.
Long-range forecast models are showing a major uptick in severe weather from the southern Plains to Great Lakes Region through the Piedmont of Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic region late next week through the following week! This will include the potential for multiple significant severe weather outbreaks with #tornado threat.
The first peak could be across Iowa, Missouri, Illinois into the Great Lakes Region next Thursday.
Stay tuned for updates on the peak #tornado season ahead

View attachment 41274
Click to expand...
lol.
 
Big multi-day outbreak or not, I would be increasingly concerned about flash flooding potential across the Mid-South and other areas of the Gulf States. I've already had 3.47 inches of rain this month. Average for me is 6.33 inches in May so it won't take much more to get to that.
 
Jbop said:

Reed Timmer Extreme Meteorologist​

​

​

1h ·
MULTIPLE TORNADO OUTBREAKS POSSIBLE MAY 15-22 CENTRAL & EASTERN U.S.
Long-range forecast models are showing a major uptick in severe weather from the southern Plains to Great Lakes Region through the Piedmont of Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic region late next week through the following week! This will include the potential for multiple significant severe weather outbreaks with #tornado threat.
The first peak could be across Iowa, Missouri, Illinois into the Great Lakes Region next Thursday.
Stay tuned for updates on the peak #tornado season ahead

View attachment 41274
Click to expand...
Gotta give Reed credit. No matter how many times he's wrong with his over the top tornado outbreak predictions, it still doesn't stop him. He's undoubtedly an "extreme" meteorologist lmao. I was going to make a meme SPC risk area with a circle that huge, but he beat me to it. Never change, Reed.
 
Grand Poo Bah said:
Gotta give Reed credit. No matter how many times he's wrong with his over the top tornado outbreak predictions, it still doesn't stop him. He's undoubtedly an "extreme" meteorologist lmao. I was going to make a meme SPC risk area with a circle that huge, but he beat me to it. Never change, Reed.
Click to expand...
He’s truly a legend in the storm chasing community.
 
Grand Poo Bah said:
Gotta give Reed credit. No matter how many times he's wrong with his over the top tornado outbreak predictions, it still doesn't stop him. He's undoubtedly an "extreme" meteorologist lmao. I was going to make a meme SPC risk area with a circle that huge, but he beat me to it. Never change, Reed.
Click to expand...
Reading over some of the comments from the Facebook page he's getting some pushback on overhyping.
 
A plurality of experimental modelling data supports the idea for far-reaching severe potential, seemingly focused on two main periods - May 16-17 and again sometime around May 20. Way too early and model discrepancy way too large to start hammering specifics, but the broad-level support is there. I have questions about kinematics, but the moisture and instability will be impressive. Like @JPWX said, flooding will also be a concern, maybe more serious of a concern than severe for many areas.
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1746977841006.png1746977848539.png1746977854611.png
 
AJS said:
Preach
Click to expand...
truth preach GIF

AJS said:
He’s truly a legend in the storm chasing community.
Click to expand...
 
Good lord, the Euro now has the low at 985mb over South Dakota and Minnesota. I don't feel like it's normal for it to be this bullish?

IMG_2245.gif


We're also only 4 days out from the start of this event and the picture isn't any more refined than it was 4 days ago. I can't imagine how difficult this one is going to be for the SPC to peg down. Is it actually possible we see an explosion of severe weather as widespread and intense as the Euro, GFS, CIPs, and CSU MLM have been indicating?

Sure, they've backed down a couple times (the GFS more than the Euro), but then they just come right back even more intense than before. Can't wait until I'm back at the office and can dig into soundings again.
 
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