• Welcome to TalkWeather!
    We see you lurking around TalkWeather! Take the extra step and join us today to view attachments, see less ads and maybe even join the discussion.
    CLICK TO JOIN TALKWEATHER

Severe Weather 2024

And in all honesty looks to me like the 18z GFS is slower with multiple impulses rotating around. Signals a multi day threat. The actual front doesn't move thru until Friday.
 
JPWX said:
And in all honesty looks to me like the 18z GFS is slower with multiple impulses rotating around. Signals a multi day threat. The actual front doesn't move thru until Friday.
Click to expand...
Slow-movers have generally been some of the most memorable and significant events down here. Of course there's nothing to take away from one model run, but that would be quite the setup if it were to pan out. Absolute unit of a system.
500wh.conus.png
 
18z GFS CWASP
 

Attachments

  • CWASPgfs212F174.png
    CWASPgfs212F174.png
    276.4 KB · Views: 0
  • CWASPgfs212F180.png
    CWASPgfs212F180.png
    267.7 KB · Views: 0
ashtonlemleywx said:
View attachment 23960
18z GFS has way more of a realistic depiction than the 12z run. Much closer to what we've been seeing out of the Euro. That 12z GFS run earlier was absurd and f*cking stupid.
Click to expand...

I don't know about more realistic, but definitely more potent than some of these recent positively-tilted, squashed solutions. The surface response is still a little weird and not ideal for a tornado outbreak type of event. On Tuesday the main low is very deep but it's back over the Rockies with the moist sector waaaaaaay out ahead in SE OK/AR/SE MO and points east. On Wednesday there's a similar issue, although it appears there might be a secondary triple point setting up over far eastern Iowa/NW IL. Thursday might actually be the most impressive-looking day on this run but again that's still nearly 200 hours out.

Lots of potential here, but we still don't know much more than we did five days ago.
 
Last edited:
CheeselandSkies said:
I don't know about more realistic, but definitely more potent than some of these recent positively-tilted, squashed solutions. The surface response is still a little weird and not ideal for a tornado outbreak type of event. On Tuesday the main low is very deep but it's back over the Rockies with the moist sector waaaaaaay out ahead in SE OK/AR/SE MO and points east. On Wednesday there's a similar issue, although it appears there might be a secondary triple point setting up over far eastern Iowa/NW IL. Thursday might actually be the most impressive-looking day on this run but again that's still nearly 200 hours out.

Lots of potential here, but we still don't know much more than we did five days ago.
Click to expand...
When I said more "Realistic"...I was referring to the 18z not being occluded backwards, reloading and bowling balling completely separate from the jet streak like the 12z did.

Even Stormchasernick poked fun at it.

Screenshot_20240221_221040_X.jpg
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top