Severe Weather 2024

[UncleJuJu98]

So when's the thread popping for Sunday. I expect a risk area to come tonight.

 

[JPWX]

SPC posts 15 to 30% area at Day 6+
Wxtwitter: IT'S A Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency! IT'LL Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency!

 

[atrainguy]

Trey's 2024 forecast is out. The conclusion is basically a slow start, with a busier than normal May/June, particularly in the Midwest and southern Plains. The analogs he found definitely have a noticeable pattern to them.

 

[JPWX]

For anyone who watched Trey's video, what years is he using as Spring analogs?

 

[atrainguy]

For anyone who watched Trey's video, what years is he using as Spring analogs?

2016, 1998, 1966, 2010, 1973, 1995

 

[JPWX]

2016, 1998, 1966, 2010, 1973, 1995

Thank ya!

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Thank ya!

Thank ya!

2010 was the year yahoo city ms got hit correct ?

 

[JBishopwx]

2010 was the year yahoo city ms got hit correct ?

Yep.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Thank ya!

April 1998. Tennessee had ef5 near lawrencburg tn April 16 think. Hard believe that’s the only ef5!officially recorded in tennessee

 

[CheeselandSkies]

1998 seems a bit unusual having that series of violent Mid-South/Dixie events in April which typically seems to be more of a La Nina thing (2011 being the most extreme example of course). Although I was only 12 then so I don't recall it directly, from what I can tell the April-May Plains chase season was rather lackluster, but most of Trey's other analogs were at least decent to active chase seasons.

1998 did however also feature the Spencer SD F4 at the end of May, which led into the infamous Great Lakes derecho which was one of if not the most violent derechos on record until August 2020, and an unusual central Oklahoma tornado outbreak in mid-June.

 

[JPWX]

I'm gonna take a look back tomorrow at the tornado counts for Mississippi and Alabama during spring of those years.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

 

[MichelleH]

Just off the top of my head -

May 27, 1973 - Multi-state outbreak that included the F4 Centreville/Brent tornado
February 16, 1995 - Joppa/Arab F3 tornado
April 8, 1998 - F5 that went through Tuscaloosa/Jefferson/St. Clair counties

All three of those tornadoes were deadly.

 

[Gawxnative]

Just off the top of my head -

May 27, 1973 - Multi-state outbreak that included the F4 Centreville/Brent tornado
February 16, 1995 - Joppa/Arab F3 tornado
April 8, 1998 - F5 that went through Tuscaloosa/Jefferson/St. Clair counties

All three of those tornadoes were deadly.

Aril 4 1977 Smithfield/Birmingham F 5 was part of a 24 tornado outbreak from Mississippi to N. Carolina. Also the squall line that involved the Southern Airways 242 crash in New Hope GA.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Seems like the midsouth area had fairly big outbreak in 1973… I have go back study look up some things … I was only 10 years old … but course the big april 74 super outbreak is reason I’m on this forums now …. Turned me into a big severe weather freak have been fascinated ever since …. Remember that day like it was yesterday .

 

[JPWX]

@JBishopwx correct me if I'm wrong but wasn't the Candlestick Park F5 tornado in 66?

 

[JBishopwx]

@JBishopwx correct me if I'm wrong but wasn't the Candlestick Park F5 tornado in 66?

That's correct

 

[KevinH]

So when's the thread popping for Sunday. I expect a risk area to come tonight.

No risk area :/

 

[andyhb]

Sunday trough is collapsing in recent model runs, particularly the Euro and EPS. Not amplified enough and therefore not getting the better moisture northward.

 

[KevinH]

Sunday trough is collapsing in recent model runs, particularly the Euro and EPS. Not amplified enough and therefore not getting the better moisture northward.