Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Low-end severe potential is evident on D5, possibly lingering into
early D6 in parts of the south-central states. Greater conditional
severe potential with potentially a more favorable synoptic pattern
is evident next weekend into early next week over the South.
Large-scale agreement remains strong with the ejection of a
shortwave trough over the Lower CO Valley early Wednesday towards
the Dakotas by Thursday afternoon. A lee surface cyclone will
initially deepen over the central High Plains and similarly track
northeastward into MN. A broad and fast southwesterly mid-level jet
will become centered from the southern Great Plains northeastward
into the Midwest on Thursday. This should overlap the northern
extent of a relatively confined, modifying warm-moist sector
emanating north from the western Gulf. Instability progs appear
rather limited amid modest mid-level lapse rates atop the warm-moist
sector. Consensus convective signal is for thunderstorm development
to increase into Thursday night within the low-level warm conveyor.
Despite strong mid to upper flow, severe potential will probably
remain lower-end and isolated.
In the wake of the aforementioned upper trough, 00Z deterministic
guidance provides the illusion of consistency with the evolution of
upstream shortwave troughs over the West. However, poor run-to-run
continuity along with large spread within respective ensembles, both
yield fairly low predictability next weekend. Still, with further
increases in both the amplitude and breadth of the Gulf moisture
plume and likelihood of an elevated mixed layer to support steep
mid-level lapse rates (at least across TX), a more prominent severe
weather episode may unfold next weekend into early next week from
the southern Great Plains to the Southeast.
..Grams.. 02/04/2024
