Severe Weather 2023

[Gail]

That system end of this month or late next week needs watching closely , trough has that look to it to produce big severe weather over large area . Starts plains then moves east. If slower solution takes place , the severe wx increases for the south

Ugh! I hate winter and spring. It’s relentless.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

That system end of this month or late next week needs watching closely , trough has that look to it to produce big severe weather over large area . Starts plains then moves east. If slower solution takes place , the severe wx increases for the south

12Z GFS has a monster 986MB low moving into the Midwest late Friday afternoon (3/31). Could be the first chase day of the year for me, or just a huge convective mess. Something seems wonky on the forecast soundings, with such a powerful surface low you'd think the surface-850mb winds would be more backed. This was about the best hodograph I could find and it's convectively contaminated.

 

[Weatherphreak]

Waff in Huntsville is starting to mention Friday the 31st. Must feel confident

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Waff in Huntsville is starting to mention Friday the 31st. Must feel confident

Meg. Memphis already going in for the system late next week for severe

 

[KevinH]

Meg. Memphis already going in for the system late next week for severe

What did they say?

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

What did they say?

Saying the system needs be monitored very closely . For now saying chance severe weather

 

[JPWX]

After yesterday, I'm personally ready for a break! Having 2 close calls within a month's time is enough for me. And I don't even want to talk about next week. I'm gonna have to though.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Large day 6 already out by spc …. This system looks more portent than last system

 

[Lake Martin EF4]

Large day 6 already out by spc …. This system looks more portent than last system

Last system dropped an EF4.

And this is more potent? I'll make the thread.

EDIT: https://talkweather.com/threads/march-30th-31st-2023.2109/

 

[Austin Dawg]

It could change tomorrow, but in the first half of April, it looks like El Niño is really kicking in here in Texas and Southern Plains.

We've had drought long enough that we're due for some severe storms and flooding. Typical Texas weather.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

All I gotta say is...if you're ready for a break from severe weather, don't look at the 18Z GFS.

 

[Lake Martin EF4]

All I gotta say is...if you're ready for a break from severe weather, don't look at the 18Z GFS.

 

[ColdFront]

All I gotta say is...if you're ready for a break from severe weather, don't look at the 18Z GFS.

In the words of James Spann.. “goodness gracious”

 

[WhirlingWx]

I remember closely following his ERTAF outlooks a couple years back.

 

[ashtonlemleywx]

April 2nd-6th showing a lot of activity on global models right now.

 

[Kragg]

April 2nd-6th showing a lot of activity on global models right now.

I pulled this off the GFS for Jefferso/Shelby county AL on the 5th at lunch today. Caveat being: a week away; things change; expect nothing, but watch everything. That’s one twisted looking hodo

 

[JPWX]

At this point, you know, might as well say a severe weather threat each week through May 1st across the Gulf States.

 

[DetectiveWX]

Sure looks like a fitting way to pay for the blowtorchy winter in the east and the Nina to go out...

 

[KevinH]

Sure looks like a fitting way to pay for the blowtorchy winter in the east and the Nina to go out...

FYI.. there is a thread for this time frame

Severe WX - March 30th- April 1st 2023

Here we go. Large Day 6 outlook out in conjunction with a decent Day 5. This is apparently more potent than last system. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/

talkweather.com

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Yeah, models have a strong signal for another severe threat after this weekend’s threat.