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Severe Weather 2023

..DISCUSSION...
...Sunday/Day 4 and Monday/Day 5...
A well-defined 80 to 100 kt mid-level jet will translate quickly
southeastward across the Desert Southwest on Sunday. As a result, a
rapid deepening of an upper-level trough is expected over the
Rockies. The exit region of the jet is forecast to overspread the
southern Plains on Sunday, with moisture return taking place across
the southern Plains. Surface dewpoints should reach the 60s F across
parts of central and east Texas by afternoon. As large-scale ascent
increases across the southern Plains, thunderstorm development is
expected late Sunday afternoon along and near the moist axis from
northeast Texas into east-central Oklahoma. The models are in
reasonably good agreement on this. A narrow 15 percent contour has
been added along the zone with the greatest severe-weather
potential.

Sunday night into Monday, an upper-level low is forecast to develop
over the central Plains, as the southern extension of the associated
trough moves quickly from the Desert Southwest into the southern
Plains. New medium-range model forecasts are more aggressive with
moisture return across the western and central Gulf Coast region. By
mid afternoon on Monday, surface dewpoints are forecast to reach the
60s F from the Texas Coastal Plain east-northeastward throughout the
lower Mississippi Valley and much of the central Gulf Coast states,
with a broad low-level jet developing across the moist sector. In
association with the low-level jet, scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop during the day and move east-northeastward
across the central Gulf Coast states. Although instability across
the moist sector is forecast to remain weak, strong forcing and
moderate to strong deep-layer shear will likely be favorable for
severe storms. At this time, the lack of instability suggests there
is uncertainty concerning how large the severe-threat area will be.
Have added a 15 percent contour in the area where confidence is the
greatest.

...Tuesday/Day 6 to Thursday/Day 8...
From Tuesday to Thursday, the mid-level trough is forecast to move
from the Mississippi Valley to the Eastern Seaboard. Thunderstorms
will be possible on Tuesday along parts of the Eastern Seaboard
ahead of a fast-moving cold front. Surface high pressure is expected
to move into much of the central and eastern U.S. on Wednesday and
Thursday. The associated dry airmass would limit thunderstorm
potential in most areas across the continental U.S.
Click to expand...


Sunday:
SPC2.jpg
Monday:
SPC.jpg
 
JBishopwx said:
Sunday:
View attachment 22049
Monday:
View attachment 22050
Click to expand...
Today's mid-range, from Broyles.
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2023

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Sunday/Day 4 and Monday/Day 5...
A well-defined 80 to 100 kt mid-level jet will translate quickly
southeastward across the Desert Southwest on Sunday. As a result, a
rapid deepening of an upper-level trough is expected over the
Rockies. The exit region of the jet is forecast to overspread the
southern Plains on Sunday, with moisture return taking place across
the southern Plains. Surface dewpoints should reach the 60s F across
parts of central and east Texas by afternoon. As large-scale ascent
increases across the southern Plains, thunderstorm development is
expected late Sunday afternoon along and near the moist axis from
northeast Texas into east-central Oklahoma. The models are in
reasonably good agreement on this. A narrow 15 percent contour has
been added along the zone with the greatest severe-weather
potential.

Sunday night into Monday, an upper-level low is forecast to develop
over the central Plains, as the southern extension of the associated
trough moves quickly from the Desert Southwest into the southern
Plains. New medium-range model forecasts are more aggressive with
moisture return across the western and central Gulf Coast region. By
mid afternoon on Monday, surface dewpoints are forecast to reach the
60s F from the Texas Coastal Plain east-northeastward throughout the
lower Mississippi Valley and much of the central Gulf Coast states,
with a broad low-level jet developing across the moist sector. In
association with the low-level jet, scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop during the day and move east-northeastward
across the central Gulf Coast states. Although instability across
the moist sector is forecast to remain weak, strong forcing and
moderate to strong deep-layer shear will likely be favorable for
severe storms. At this time, the lack of instability suggests there
is uncertainty concerning how large the severe-threat area will be.
Have added a 15 percent contour in the area where confidence is the
greatest.

...Tuesday/Day 6 to Thursday/Day 8...
From Tuesday to Thursday, the mid-level trough is forecast to move
from the Mississippi Valley to the Eastern Seaboard. Thunderstorms
will be possible on Tuesday along parts of the Eastern Seaboard
ahead of a fast-moving cold front. Surface high pressure is expected
to move into much of the central and eastern U.S. on Wednesday and
Thursday. The associated dry airmass would limit thunderstorm
potential in most areas across the continental U.S.

..Broyles.. 11/16/2023
Click to expand...
 
KevinH said:
Love Tyler!

Not sure I love how these maps look though

How do you share tweets in this forum so the preview shows up? When I paste the x.com URL, the preview doesn't show up.
Click to expand...
I'm not sure, Twitter has been really weird for a while, I just copied from the app (on Android) and it worked for me.
 
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