Severe Weather 2023

[KevinH]

I have a OnePlus

Well now I wonder why the previews work for some and not others???? :/

 

[JBishopwx]

Well now I wonder why the previews work for some and not others. :/

Samsung is just superior. That's it.

 

[KevinH]

Samsung is just superior. That's it.

When it comes to TVs, yes Samsung (used by @Clancy) and OnePlus (used by @UncleJuJu98) both use the Android operating system.

This was not an issue before Twitter became X.

 

[JPWX]

I told you @KevinH. Sooner than later...... LOL!

 

[KevinH]

An ongoing thread: (sorry I don’t know how to make the twitter/x previews load on here anymore )

https://x.com/weathertrackus/status/1725302237704986999?s=46&t=NBCFVgjjJLxach1Cmkmpsw

 

[JPWX]

Someone help me out here. I couldn't help but notice on the 18z GFS Composite Reflectivity. What appears to be a secondary low trying to form in the black circle area and where I would assume a warm front would be located in red. Correct me if I'm wrong, but to me, that's definitely what it looks like. @JBishopwx

 

[Clancy]

Someone help me out here. I couldn't help but notice on the 18z GFS Composite Reflectivity. What appears to be a secondary low trying to form in the black circle area and where I would assume a warm front would be located in red. Correct me if I'm wrong, but to me, that's definitely what it looks like. @JBishopwx

Definitely could be. 18Z GFS shows convection dragging out across AL/GA on Tuesday with that setup, possibly bringing it into the warmer part of the day for those areas.

 

[JPWX]

Definitely could be. 18Z GFS shows convection dragging out across AL/GA on Tuesday with that setup, possibly bringing it into the warmer part of the day for those areas.

That would also imply a greater risk of flash flooding across parts of North MS and surrounding areas if that were to verify.

 

[Clancy]

That would also imply a greater risk of flash flooding across parts of North MS and surrounding areas if that were to verify.

Could result in a classic Dixie wedge situation with soaking rains north and severe convection south.

 

[JPWX]

The 18z GFS CWASP run is interesting to say the least.

 

[Clancy]

Hodos in parts of AL look interesting at 12Z Tuesday, but at least some uptrend in forecast instability would need to be realized for much to come of it, not that it takes much.

 

[Weatherphreak]

something I’ve started to notice on gfs is the systems always slow down which results in the systems shifting north and west.

 

[KevinH]

Could result in a classic Dixie wedge situation with soaking rains north and severe convection south.

Wait… when you say “wedge”? lol

 

[KevinH]

The 18z GFS CWASP run is interesting to say the least.

Sooooooo

Do you have the frames that come AFTER this? I wonder since the SPC has areas east of that contour highlighted.

 

[Austin Dawg]

Someone help me out here. I couldn't help but notice on the 18z GFS Composite Reflectivity. What appears to be a secondary low trying to form in the black circle area and where I would assume a warm front would be located in red. Correct me if I'm wrong, but to me, that's definitely what it looks like. @JBishopwx

That path looks familiar doesn’t it

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Spc trimmed up the risk area.

 

[JBishopwx]

For those looking for a county view:

 

[UncleJuJu98]

06z euro looks pretty potent at the end of the run. Looks like a better ejection will occur more so than the 06z gfs

 

[KevinH]

06z euro looks pretty potent at the end of the run. Looks like a better ejection will occur more so than the 06z gfs

Post. Pictures!

lol

 

[Clancy]

Mid-range from SPC this morning. Uncertainty on instability for D5 but shear and moisture look favorable.

...DISCUSSION...
...D4/Monday - ArkLaTex into parts of the Southeast...
Extended-range guidance is in general agreement regarding the
synoptic-scale pattern across the CONUS on D4/Monday. A vigorous
mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to pivot eastward
across the southern Plains/ArkLaTex region, to the south of a
weakening midlevel cyclone over the central Plains. However,
considerable uncertainty (with regard to both run-to-run
deterministic changes and ensemble spread) remains regarding the
details, which will impact the magnitude and placement of the
primary severe-thunderstorm threat on D4/Monday.

Generally speaking, mid 60s F dewpoints are expected to advance
northward across parts of east TX into the lower MS Valley, east of
a surface cyclone and trailing cold front that will approach the
ArkLaTex/ArkLaMiss regions by early evening. Initial thunderstorm
development is expected by late afternoon across parts of east TX,
with an increase in storm coverage Monday night as the shortwave
pivots through the base of the positively tilted trough. Strong
deep-layer shear will support organized convection and at least some
severe-thunderstorm threat where sufficient destabilization can
occur. The threat is likely to be maximized near and just south of
the surface-low track, which remains somewhat uncertain at this
time.

...D5/Tuesday - Parts of the Southeast...
Depending on the timing and intensity of the primary mid/upper-level
shortwave trough and surface cyclone, some severe threat may linger
into Tuesday across parts of the Southeast, within an environment
characterized by relatively rich low-level moisture, strong
deep-layer flow/shear, and weak instability. A separate area of
threat could materialize across parts of the Carolinas Tuesday
night, in association with a secondary low-level moisture surge, but
uncertainty regarding instability remains too high to include any
15% areas at this time.

..Dean.. 11/17/2023