Severe Weather 2023

[KevinH]

This system has Texas and Oklahoma in its sights. Too far out to make a precise forecast, but it looks to be really, really strong. It's caught my attention even this far away, and I'm already watching it. It cuts off before the system can move further east, but it looks like it's holding together through to Arkansas as it reaches the Mississippi River. The model I was looking at their cuts off at that point, like to see if it shows up again tomorrow.

Alrighty…

 

[JPWX]

One thing that really caught my attention was the fact that the Euro Ensemble Control showed it. The operational Euro isn't quite in range yet.

 

[JPWX]

The other models and their ensembles didn't quite have it nor were aggressive as the Euro Ens. Though I haven't looked at the 18z runs yet.

 

[KevinH]

The other models and their ensembles didn't quite have it nor were aggressive as the Euro Ens. Though I haven't looked at the 18z runs yet.

Well keep us updated!

 

[JPWX]

For what it's worth the 18z GFS has some semblance of a negative tilted trough (though I would like to see it leaned back more from west to east)

 

[CheeselandSkies]

SPC Day 4 highlight for parts of IA/MN/WI. Don't see that in late October too often.

 

[JPWX]

SPC Day 4 highlight for parts of IA/MN/WI. Don't see that in late October too often.

From SPC Event Database Archive for these areas:
Day 4 (Experimental at the time): October 1st, 2005
Day 4 (15%): October 11th, 2020
Day 4 (15%): October 23rd, 2022

 

[JPWX]

While the models have nothing that really sticks out as far as severe weather threats through the next 10 to 15 days, with the increasing snowfall from Montana and across the northern Plains along with cold air making it's way in, one has to believe that at some point soon, we'll have a legit threat.

 

[Weatherphreak]

I just want a slow moving low that dumps about an inch or so of rain from Central Texas through the Carolinas.

 

[Austin Dawg]

For the first time in forever, we have forecasted rain almost every day for the next 10 days so I think something is starting to change in the overall pattern.

 

[JPWX]

For the first time in forever, we have forecasted rain almost every day for the next 10 days so I think something is starting to change in the overall pattern.

Yeah. Y'all might go from drought to flooding issues in Texas within the next few weeks.

 

[Austin Dawg]

Yeah. Y'all might go from drought to flooding issues in Texas within the next few weeks.

Well, at least I will vinified for saying it IS going to start raining and not stop for months. You don't scare Texans when you talk about tornadoes, but you grab their attention when you mention floods here. Flash floods here differ because of the lack of soil and elevation changes.

 

[TheSuckZone]

 

[KevinH]

00z Euro Ensemble Control has what would likely be a big severe weather threat going into the first week of November. That temperature difference is just asking for trouble.

This still the case?

 

[JPWX]

This still the case?

Nope

 

[KevinH]

Nope

lol shocker

 

[Austin Dawg]

It was an isolated area, but we had more than one tornado warning. I did not hear of one form, although there were some unconfirmed reports of a tornado on the ground and in a few places. There really weren't any huge, scary signatures just a few instances of twisting in the storms on the radar. It was raining like crazy here for a while.

 

[JBishopwx]

Not gonna be the one who starts a new thread, but keep an eye out on the drought conditions currently in MS and AL. It could play a big role in 2024.

 

[KevinH]

Not gonna be the one who starts a new thread, but keep an eye out on the drought conditions currently in MS and AL. It could play a big role in 2024.

Go on……….

Severe Weather 2024

Go ahead…. lol

talkweather.com

 

[JPWX]

Go on……….

Severe Weather 2024

Go ahead…. lol

talkweather.com